tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post8417247328529346547..comments2024-03-28T01:33:22.764-04:00Comments on The DiploMad 2.0: Trump's Seoul TrainDiploMadhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02316439950882822419noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-77818414860498441352018-05-12T18:20:40.187-04:002018-05-12T18:20:40.187-04:00My only question is whether the U.S.S.Pueblo will ...My only question is whether the U.S.S.Pueblo will be respectfully returned to the U.S. Navy.Hangtown Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11212307495504665473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-32699231137841292342018-05-07T00:05:58.715-04:002018-05-07T00:05:58.715-04:00Maybe it will happen on a very long time scale. Ma...Maybe it will happen on a very long time scale. Maybe not. Maybe the majority of the people really do want us gone. Whole peoples are sometimes very foolish. See, <i>ee.gg.</i>, <strong>Moon Jae-in, election of</strong>; Hugo Chavez, election of; Aldolf Hitler, election of.<br /><br />The question asked wasn't whether we'd still be friends. The question asked, and is still unanswered, Doctor, was: what happens if NK invades SK and threatens nukes to any intervenor?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-78210638831414109052018-05-03T00:24:58.570-04:002018-05-03T00:24:58.570-04:00No, we saw a meeting with *no* results, *no* commi...No, we saw a meeting with *no* results, *no* commitment, yet tons of US punditry yammering on about how "this *could* mean the end of the Korean War".<br />It was none other than our dear Jimmy Carter (one of the nicest guys who's ever been President, surely), who bailed out North Korea's nuclear program to live another day after the country was beset by famine and internal strife.<br /><br />This could all be a tactic. Jong Un could be trying to play Trump and Xi off against each other. It sounds like Xi has an agenda that he wants for Jong Un, as he just sent his FM to go dictate terms, I think. We'll see. Trump's outrageous enough, that I wouldn't want to make him look foolish on CNN. Cabinet members get away with that with only a firing, but I'd guess a personal thing like that could start a war.<br /><br />- reader #1482Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-34939396548475989892018-05-03T00:20:20.637-04:002018-05-03T00:20:20.637-04:00My point was that we got nothing *from the negotia...My point was that we got nothing *from the negotiations*.<br />Iran was *always* willing to accept just about any deal that allowed them to continue enriching uranium (presumably because it's very difficult to distinguish compliance, whereas if there was *no* enrichment allowed, a violation would be quite clear).<br />Clinton and Bush both rejected any negotiations that didn't include a complete ban on domestic enrichment (reasonable because the mullahs were caught red-handed cheating on their obligations).<br /><br />My point was that we got 'nothing from the negotiations'. Basically, Obama just accepted what prior presidents from both sides of the aisle rejected as non-starters.<br /><br />If you start your negotiations by accepting your opponents very first offer, you have received nothing from your negotiations. Certainly you *can* get a good deal in this fashion, if your opponent is egregiously stupid. But typically, if your opponent knows that you will accept any offer, they don't give up anything via negotiations.<br /><br />IMO, Trump was right to lambaste the kerry/obama approach of committing to making a deal before terms were spelled out by an opponent. It certainly *seems* magnanimous, but it's strategically bunk.<br /><br />- reader #1482Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-72500702831234690462018-05-02T21:43:38.778-04:002018-05-02T21:43:38.778-04:00Hope springs eternal One Brow.
JKHope springs eternal One Brow.<br /><br />JKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-28930270500990853302018-05-02T19:44:29.449-04:002018-05-02T19:44:29.449-04:00I read elsewhere on another thread that a lot of o...I read elsewhere on another thread that a lot of older South Koreans think Moon is selling them out (with help from Trump?). When you were in the RoK,what was the feeling on the street? Are you in touch with anyone else who might know something about what's going on over there?<br /><br />I've always been interested in the Far East. My short and inglorious diplomatic career included stints in Thailand and China, and some excursions to Viet Nam and Laos. I taught in Taiwan for years. Chinese is my best second language. However, I never made it to Korea, even though the place interests me. Kephahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00999385775493831638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-28248759693589124032018-05-02T18:21:44.665-04:002018-05-02T18:21:44.665-04:00Larry, I think that's a Trump saying. I remem...Larry, I think that's a Trump saying. I remember hearing that years ago from a guy who read his book.Doctor Weaselnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-6188930046540151362018-05-02T18:19:36.700-04:002018-05-02T18:19:36.700-04:00If the ROK people ask for the US to go home, the R...If the ROK people ask for the US to go home, the ROK government can take that into consideration. I expect that will happen on a very long time scale. The government really doesn't want us gone. The people, most of them, really don't want us gone. if they really want us gone, OK, bye. We'll still be friends. Doctor Weaselnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-78839392682695496682018-05-02T10:32:44.325-04:002018-05-02T10:32:44.325-04:00JK,
As Boot points out, we saw similar things les...JK,<br /><br />As Boot points out, we saw similar things less than 20 years ago from NK, it was a ploy to get more aid from SK.<br /><br />I'm not sure what Obama's undeserved Peace Prize has to do with this, or why you think I would care. It's not like I voted for Obama.<br /><br />Still, JK, I can't even hope to be as entertaining as you.One Browhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11938816242512563561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-69572467223875923192018-05-02T10:29:24.787-04:002018-05-02T10:29:24.787-04:00While I'm not sure what Iran has to do with th...While I'm not sure what Iran has to do with this conversation, it's untrue that we got nothing in the Iran deal. We got a limit on enrichment levels and the ability to verify. What's the improvement you seek, and how do we convince Iran to go along?<br /><br />It's possible that NK is serous about peace this time, and this public declaration is perhaps a little further toward peace than previous ones. It could be real, or it could be part of the game: you have to offer something better to keep the marks coming back tot eh table after the last loss. Time will tell. One thing that won't happen is Kim giving up his nuclear arsenal.One Browhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11938816242512563561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-52908638869850839722018-05-01T18:20:11.275-04:002018-05-01T18:20:11.275-04:00One Brow,
[If] a Democrat were President right no...One Brow,<br /><br />[If] a Democrat were President right now, probably most of you would be also.<br /><br />There is that parallel universe possibility however; as we've never witnessed accomplishing anything remotely similar: Borrowing from Hillary Clinton "At this point what difference does it make?"<br /><br />You'll recall One Brow the Nobel Committee's issuing its press release "The Committee has attached special importance to Obama's vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons" which, signified precisely what?<br /><br />Obama's "vision"? <br /><br />(Meanwhile both a nuclear - as opposed to the atomic variety of the GW Bush era - got accomplished as well as, an ICBM possibility/capability under your hypothetical "If" which doesn't amount to much even for the sake of arguing 'cause, it didn't happen.)<br /><br />https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2009/press.html<br /><br />Still One Brow, keep up your entertaining.<br /><br />You are funny - whether you'll get a Mark Twain I dunno only because you've stiff competition from that "lady" featured at the Correspondent's Dinner.<br /><br />JK Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-9689784092683846312018-05-01T16:31:58.031-04:002018-05-01T16:31:58.031-04:00There has previously been a lot of *speculation* a...There has previously been a lot of *speculation* and foreign hopes of ending the Korean war... every time the two countries meet, but there's never been a public declaration of anything like this.<br />That doesn't make it legit... it only makes it unprecedented... there's a huge gap between 'unprecedented progress' and 'legitimate progress'.<br />Trump's best bet here is to keep the tradewar with China escalating. Both of our economies could take a nosedive with that policy, but the US government would survive (for better or worse), and the chinese government likely wouldn't.<br /><br />- reader #1482Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-60968836749001218192018-05-01T16:24:12.266-04:002018-05-01T16:24:12.266-04:00Downright skeptical here... and I don't think ...Downright skeptical here... and I don't think there's any lack of skepticism.<br />What's wrong with the liberal side here though? I mean, Trump blusters and demands a sit-down with Jong Un, then North and South Korea commit to and end to the korean war after 70 years, and liberals *aren't* foaming at the mouth to bestow a Nobel Peace Prize on Trump?<br />What's the difference? The difference *seems* to be words. If you say the right things, you can burn the middle east to the ground and keep your Nobel Peace Prize and the acclaim of the left. If you bring a 70-year conflict to an end (theoretical at this point), you aren't even on the radar because you didn't use the words of placating the progressives. All hat, no cattle.<br /><br />I can say this... Trump has gotten more from North Korea *prior* to starting negotiations than Obama/Kerry got as a *result* of negotiations with Iran. Admittedly, that's only "better than nothing", because all Obama/Kerry did was accept the unilateral terms Iran had previously offered to GWB and Bill Clinton... namely a refusal to end domestic enrichment (which was a non-starter for GWB and Bill Clinton). Obama, GWB, and Clinton did *not* receive even the slightest offer to from NK to end the korean war.<br /><br />- reader #1482Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-7963016970257637162018-05-01T14:42:27.678-04:002018-05-01T14:42:27.678-04:00Some liberals are taking a very skeptical approach...Some liberals are taking a very skeptical approach:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/dont-let-the-korea-summit-hype-fool-you-weve-been-here-before/2018/04/27/d9fad7ba-4a2d-11e8-827e-190efaf1f1ee_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.55df672a8f29" rel="nofollow">Max Boot at the Washington Post</a><br /><br />Frankly, if a Democrat were President right now, probably most of you would be also.One Browhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11938816242512563561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-49852272547952932742018-05-01T11:18:13.731-04:002018-05-01T11:18:13.731-04:00i first visited rok in 1983 and enjoyed a special ...i first visited rok in 1983 and enjoyed a special visit to panmunjom before it was on the tourist trail, and served there 2001-2005. a number of former fso colleagues worked the korean problem over the years, including some who were rewarded for doing nothing by a lame duck obama. im happily hoping that trump: a. leads the koreas to peace under capitalism; b. flings a razzbery to the vast majority of foggy bottom swampsters who deride him.jthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06813674789003385660noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-20898975927940863472018-04-30T21:03:28.982-04:002018-04-30T21:03:28.982-04:00Moon will be replaced because the ROK has learned ...Moon will be replaced because the ROK has learned the peaceful transition/constitutional method. Part of the calculus is that Pyongyang probably knows that there are a lot of South Koreans who see Moon as a sellout, and the next ROK President could be more hardline.Kephahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00999385775493831638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-24003047848371018402018-04-30T20:59:28.594-04:002018-04-30T20:59:28.594-04:00It's also significant that Trump has told Stat...It's also significant that Trump has told State it can ease up on restrictions about meeting Taiwan's officials. That's overdue, too.<br /><br />But I am also greatly impressed that Trump has a real shot at ending the Korean War--with Pyongyang crying "Uncle!"Kephahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00999385775493831638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-74320828798001474462018-04-30T10:28:45.996-04:002018-04-30T10:28:45.996-04:00An acquaintance texts me having noted my above &qu...An acquaintance texts me having noted my above "apologies Mr. Shakespeare" and wonders at my typing that - I replied to him that it would be easier (difficult to type on my phone's keypad: arthritic fingers) were I simply allowed to explain using my desktop's keypad.<br /><br />*KM? My apology to Mr. Shakespeare comes to me from a memory of an Uncle's manner of telling me to strike while the iron is hot. Comes from the play, Julius Caesar:<br /><br />"There is a tide in the affairs of men.<br />Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;<br />Omitted, all the voyage of their life<br />Is bound in shallows and in miseries.<br />On such a full sea are we now afloat,<br />And we must take the current when it serves,<br />Or lose our ventures."<br /><br />Hope that's sufficient.<br /><br />JK Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-73921739542961560502018-04-30T10:09:23.029-04:002018-04-30T10:09:23.029-04:00Yeah... China's sponging off the US economy is...Yeah... China's sponging off the US economy is the only thing I think possibly could have had any affect on this calculus. If that sponging stops, China, right now, faces an existential crisis. It makes sense that China might trade NK for time to bolster demand 'anywhere but the US'. But it also seems unlikely to be legit.. so...<br /><br />- reader #1482Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-60032677976495930092018-04-30T10:00:54.525-04:002018-04-30T10:00:54.525-04:00Here's how it went. Once NK bragged they had a...Here's how it went. Once NK bragged they had a missle that could hit the US the gloves came off. Did they have a missle? Of course not but it didn't matter. Trump and Mad Dog had their excuse. China was notified that their marionette was going to disappear. If they got in the way so were they. South Korea was given the bad news. Kim was immediately called to China and given his last rites. Trade with the US was more important than his antics. If the talks fail, bye, bye, Kim.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-17962963295968942632018-04-30T09:58:21.164-04:002018-04-30T09:58:21.164-04:00Mr. Amselem?
Last week I'd noticed on your si...Mr. Amselem?<br /><br />Last week I'd noticed on your sidebar an item which was, pretty good but the only thing about my reading that was, it diverted my attention which resulted in my not calling attention to it when its appearance might've been most propitious. <br /><br />Anyway I note Mr. Dan Greenfield mirrors (after his own fashion) your thoughts regarding Trump's diplomatic - apologies Mr. Shakespeare - "sea change."<br /><br />http://sultanknish.blogspot.com/2018/04/trumps-international-art-of-deal.html<br /><br />JKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-22679300147592194522018-04-30T02:16:21.997-04:002018-04-30T02:16:21.997-04:00Yep. It's the threat of, "You might beat...Yep. It's the threat of, "You might beat me, but can I hurt you badly enough that it's not worth your while," gambit.Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13296988746956477216noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-47962728872505298362018-04-30T02:12:31.326-04:002018-04-30T02:12:31.326-04:00Well, as the saying goes, if you owe the bank a mi...Well, as the saying goes, if you owe the bank a million dollars, you're in deep kimchee. If you owe the bank a billion dollars, they're in deep kimchee. Chinese internal stability owes a great deal on continued high-volume trade. I think Trump has figured out that the leadership of China depends more on us than our leadership depends on them.<br />Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13296988746956477216noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-2508271297326773982018-04-30T01:36:23.506-04:002018-04-30T01:36:23.506-04:00Very reasonable questions. I suspect China has bee...Very reasonable questions. I suspect China has been getting fed up with its erratic satellite North Korea. It used to be fun when the Kim dynasty taunted the USA, but in today’s world NK’s antics have little upside and lots of downside — like very bad relations with Japan and South Korea. Enter the Donald with his very realistic threat of tariffs. Just how high those tariffs are going to be just might depend on how China handles Its wayward puppet North Korea.<br /><br />This last point must be too obvious for news media to mention or something.CJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18209227831122554231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1400985529434569506.post-71851988298177168242018-04-29T21:05:46.251-04:002018-04-29T21:05:46.251-04:00You forgot to mention Trump's tariffs on Chine...You forgot to mention Trump's tariffs on Chinese steel with the promise of more to come. The Korea problem has always had China big in the loop. So finally real sanctions from both the US and China took hold and Kim was "invited" to go speak to the Chinese leadership. Mr. Beehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18180098780283366624noreply@blogger.com