The First Debate

Background and disclaimers:

1)  I am a Trump supporter and will vote for him in November;
2) I am writing this without listening to any of the pundits, so I might miss some stuff they get;
3) I am home alone with my two dogs as the Diplowife, who always has lots of views, is in Spain with two of our kids to attend a wedding;
4) I have been texting her for the past 90 minutes giving her a running account of the debate as she sits on an overnight bus from Donosti (San Sebastian) to Madrid;
5) I have not requested the views of my dogs.

General impression: no KO punches by either Trump or Clinton; both will have survived the night relatively unscathed, and both camps will claim victory. I, however, think that the pundits will score it as a win for Hillary. I, myself, score it as a narrow win on points for her when scoring purely as a debate performance. That doesn't mean, as I note below, that Trump lost in the real world.

She came prepared, spoke well, did not get flustered, went on the offense on several occasions, and managed to get Trump off message and look defensive. Clinton spewed lies and a lot of Democrat/progressive nonsense but did it well, without too much effective challenge from Trump. Clinton also got an assist from the moderator, Lester Holt, who let her go on and on, while he repeatedly interrupted Trump to remind him of time limits; he also engaged Trump in debate re his "birther" stance, on the history of his opposition to the war in Iraq, and on "stop and frisk." In addition, Trump stumbled on the whole issue of "no fly" and "terror watch" lists, lamely agreeing with Clinton that an unconstitutional denial of second amendment rights could and should result from  these extrajudicial lists (see what I wrote about this here.) Trump let her slide on cyber security, not hammering Clinton on her private server and "reckless" disregard for national security information, only mentioning in passing her 33,000 deleted emails; he, furthermore, never brought up the Clinton Foundation, "pay for play," Benghazi, and her own great wealth stealthily acquired over the past several years. He was too defensive on his tax returns, on the birther issue, and his bankruptcies. He did not hit her on the immigration and refugee vetting issue. Trump never mentioned the words "deplorable" or "irredeemable." He let Clinton off the hook--too much a gentleman?--on "bimbo eruptions," while she did not hesitate to blast him about a Latina beauty contestant who has some beef against Trump.

Trump did get off a few good shots about Clinton's disastrous political record, nil accomplishments as SecState, support for bad trade deals, and lack of realism in her tax-and-spend proposals. I thought Trump did very well on "law and order," and in demonstrating empathy for people stuck in the inner cities and suffering under Democrat rule for the last 60 to 100 years. He might have picked up some African-American votes without losing white ones. Hillary, on the other hand, was atrocious on the race issue and, I think, that will cost her some white votes. She basically said all of us are racially biased. She appeared to trash all the cops; Trump successfully contrasted that with the widespread support he has from police organizations.

In sum, Trump missed an opportunity to put the election away. I have no idea how this will play in the polls outside of the beltway, in the real America, over the next few days, but can't imagine they will move much either way. Trump, however, might pick up some support from those who like his "blue collar" manner of speaking. I don't know.

There are two more debates. My two-cents of advice for Trump? Go after her on the topics mentioned above. He also, frankly, needs to look better prepared. He can't just recycle campaign speeches. Hillary Clinton is a clever, tough old reptile who desperately wants power. She will say and do anything to achieve it. Do not underestimate her.

OK, off to listen to the great and wise ones.