Saturday, December 17, 2016

Intel Agencies and Russian Intent: Ain't Buying it

Quick one.

There's all sorts of press reporting out there that now--surprise!--our myriad intelligence agencies, the same ones that refused to brief Congress, have reached a unified conclusion that not only did the Russians hack into the DNC, they did it with the INTENT of making Donald Trump president.

Yes, about that bridge you want to buy, please sign right here and have the money wired to my account . .  .

We saw our fearless president in one of his rambling, seemingly endless press conferences, continue to try to stick the shiv into Trump's ribs. All sorts of nonsense of how he stood up to Putin on Russian hacking some months ago and told him to "cut it out." Right. And that after those blood-curdling words from the American president, we saw a decline and maybe even a stop to Russian hacking efforts . . . right. Obama, of course, told us that the intel agencies had concluded that the Russian goal was to make Trump president . . . right.

Don't buy it.

I have been around intel agencies and intel briefings almost my entire adult life. Most intel is garbage. Some of it is very good but that usually is very narrowly focussed and has to do with hard facts: e.g., "Army divisions X and Y have been put on alert and all leaves cancelled." The intent? Ah, well, that's a matter for conjecture and speculation unless--extremely rare--you have a reliable source right inside the other guy's highest and most inner circle who can tell you what is being said and planned for those divisions. As I said, very rare.

Just days ago, as noted, the heads of our intel agencies declined to send briefers to Congress to provide the intel on Russian hacking of the elections. Leaked reports indicated that the FBI and CIA were at logger-heads over the issue of Russian hacking. Now, suddenly, unanimity. Right.

Now, suddenly, we know the Russians, under direct orders from Putin, hacked with the intent of turning the election over to Trump.

Fake news.

Don't forget that this odious misadministration has a long track record of fiddling with intel. Political pressure was brought, for example, to declare us as winning against ISIS, when the intel showed we were not. The CIA and others were forced to find that climate change is a greater threat than terror.

Look, the Russians and Chinese and others have been running intel and misinformation operations against us and our allies for decades. This Obama administration has taken a very soft stance on all of this, up until Hillary Clinton lost the election on November 8. Suddenly, the administration, Hollywood, the media, and, of course, the Democratic political class are in a patriotic uproar over foreign intervention in our elections. Prior to those elections we were assured by Obama and minions that our system was solid as a rock and that it could not be tampered with.

What happened to change things? Clinton lost. That was not supposed to happen! Now, suddenly, our election system is highly vulnerable AND our whole election, it is more than implied, has been thrown to Trump by these foreign actors.

Take it from me: this is bogus. The intel agencies know nothing of the kind. They might be able to say we have been subjected to hacking, I am sure we have, but the intel lads and lassies have no idea beyond speculation, much of it politically motivated, as to what the Russians or others intended. In addition, is there any evidence that shows that blue collar workers in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc., voted for Trump based on the information "provided" by the Russians?

We have a situation today wherein the media and Obama seek to get us to forget what the "hacks," be they Russian or otherwise, revealed. I would note that the Russians did not make Hillary put an illegal unsecure private server in her bathroom closet and stuff it with highly sensitive information. The Russians did not make DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz try to rig the primaries against Bernie Sanders. The Russians did not have CNN personnel passing presidential debate questions to the Hillary camp, and on and on.

Is there foreign interference in our elections? You bet.

The biggest offender? Not Russia, but Mexico. Mexican officials publicly called on Mexicans in the US to oppose Trump; Mexico's over fifty--yes, fifty--consulates in the US (here) are hot beds of political activity and activism. Millions of illegal and legal aliens largely from Mexico and Central America vote, yes vote. We need to have an in-depth investigation into Mexico's interference in our elections, an interference that goes well beyond revealing embarrassing DNC texts.

There. That's an investigation the GOP should endorse, and the new SecState should take up the issue of Mexican interference in our elections.

36 comments:

  1. Please don't say the Russians "hacked our elections". The Russians may have hacked the Democratic Party & some of it's operatives. This "election hack" meme is disruptive left wing fake news.

    BC

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    1. It is one of their favorite techniques. The recount mess in Florida allowed people to think that the Floridians were using old worn-out mechanical machines, and those lemmings got really confused about the chads, since those Roosevelt-era machines do not have punch cards. That's the key phrase: Allowed them to th ink." No actual lie need be told, just put things out, sometimes two rather different things, in close juxtaposition, often read by the same NPR voice, and people fall into it every time.

      Michael Adams

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  2. Surely John Podesta has admitted falling for a "phishing" attack? Even my granny knows about them.

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    1. I read an article interviewing the IT admin who caused this fiasco. Apparently Podesta & Co received and forwarded a phishing attack to his IT guy. His IT guy responded saying "this is legit, you need to change your password and enable two-factor", intending to say something like 'this is a legitimate attack'. Apparently Podesta/his handlers took that to mean "this is a legitimate email, click on it to change your password." Stupid beyond stupid.

      - reader #1482

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  3. If the Russians really swung our election with their hacking ... and Putin was personally involved ... wouldn't this revelation by our intelligence agencies compromise our "sources and methods" to the Ruskies? If the Obummer administration is willing to pay this high a price for dubious political gain, then they are really a bunch of doofuses! If not, then it is obviously fake news.

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    1. Hey, Potts! I am pretty sure that the plural of 'doofus' is 'doofi'. Nescafe'?

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    2. That would be the case if "doofus" was from the Latin. My understanding is that it was coined by Stanley Dunham Obama Soetoro to describe young Barack ...

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    3. I been hearin' it since before he was borned. So, I am still taking my stand for grammatical purity.

      Michael

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  4. And yet those cunning Russkis didn't release Hillary's "deleted" e-mails. How very odd.

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    1. They were going to save them to blackmail her with after she got elected. Another reason they didn't want Trump to win. Now they are all just juicy gossip.

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    2. Naaaaaah. The Russians really passed the "deleted" e-mails to Trump, who, being a patriotic American, passed them to the FBI without disclosing them.

      I'm not a big Trump fan, and supported Cruz in the primaries. But the election is a done deal, and we're now seeing the Democrats using the disinformation memes of fake news and Russian "support" of Trump to discredit the election.

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  5. Diplomad:

    You forgot the Russian dezinformatsiya tactic of hacking into Hillary's secure bathroom server and then placing her yoga schedule and recipes into Carlos Danger's computer forcing Comey to reopen the investigation, though briefly, of Hillary's e-mails and whether any respectable prosecutor would persecute, excuse me, prosecute her.

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    1. Those Russians, a riddle inside an enigma . . .

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  6. There were certainly foreign governments who tried to influence our election. The Mexicans, for sure, and probably the Saudis and the Moroccans (at the 11th hour, so to speak) and a few others. These are the governments who gave to the Clinton Family Foundation in the hope they would have access after Hillary won the election. In no way would it make sense for those governments buying access to tip the balance in favor of Trump.

    The Democrats' spin really makes no sense on its very face. Why buy access to a candidate you want to see beaten?

    An equally interesting question is, what do the Democrats hope to achieve by encouraging electors to be faithless? Do they hope to throw the election into the Republican-dominated House in the hope our Representatives will find in favor of Hillary? Or merely damage Trump's credibility? I suspect the latter, which I consider disloyal to the office of the presidency and to the country. Not that I am surprised by disloyalty on their part, I just wonder how that builds their party for subsequent election?

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    1. Right you are F. They believe implicitly in the "narrative", so make Trump's illegit ahead of time, but they have two problems. They started to believe their own BS and got lazy and stupid, and they and their allies have burned their credibility to the ground. Few believe them now and fewer still with their latest actions.

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  7. With around 186,000 precincts in 2004 in the US it is very, very difficult to change the election, unless it is very close. In my state the precincts report to the county which then reports to the state. The voting machines are not connected to the Internet. Changing the vote totals would have to be done at the county, maybe, or state level. The state reports by county and the local election board can check the numbers vs the state's report.
    Now in Detroit we know that a due to the recount attempt a sealed box listing 306 votes actually had 50. So we know that the Democratically controlled precinct was potentially corrupt and we should know who signed off on the seal. The state AG is proposing an investigation and has the person who signed off on the seal to start with the interviews. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/12/revealed-michigan-recount-uncovers-massive-voter-fraud-detroit-precincts/
    It has been reported by True The Vote that an estimated 3,000,000 non-citizens voted and exit polls in some Virginia counties had a small percentage of people who voted admit they were illegal. So how many voted and did not admit they were not citizens? http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/28/illegal-voters-true-the-vote-supports-trumps-claim/
    Several state are investigating why someone in DHS has hacked their elections. http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/more-states-confirm-cyber-attacks-sourced-to-dhs/476227320
    With the total vote being a delta of 2.8 million in HRC's favor and 3.4 million delta in CA to HRC's favor, the illegal vote of 3 million as per True The Vote, HRC may not have won the poplar vote with legal votes. Also notice all things being equal without the electoral college, CA alone would have elected HRC.
    Foreign observers of our elections have remarked that we have fewer safeguards in our elections than even third world counties do. Even Mexico and Canada have voter ID requirements. Mexico's voter ID much more strict than those laws in our states that have voter ID.
    We need a through investigation of our voting system because of corruption, fraud, multiple voting and illegals voting. The US needs laws requiring birth certificates to register and picture ID to vote. Also get rid of the corrupt motor voter laws and have states cross check voter registrations interstate and intrastate to catch those who vote in multiple precincts. Funeral directors must report to the SS Admin so why not to the election boards as well to remove the dead from voter rolls.

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    1. Birth certificates, naturalization certificates, passports, or other proof of citizenship should be used for registering voters. I recall that when my wife and I first registered, we showed passports as proof of citizenship.

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    2. In my state just show a bill with your name and address and you can register; the same time as you vote you can register No voter ID required to register or vote. Disgusting!

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    3. I lived 25 years in the US with a green card, before taking out citizenship. During those years I was continually sent "instructions for how to register to vote".
      During citizenship application, I simply ticked a "No" box when asked "Have you voted in the USA?" No documentation required.

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  8. If the Russians did "interfere" with the elections, it was a slick 'Mission Impossible' interference. You remember, they are tasked to expose a bad politician/movement by getting them to speak plainly all the while being broadcast.

    Come to think of it, that is how Hollywood took down Lonesome Rhodes in 'A Face in the Crowd' and Eddie Murphy used the same in 'The Distinguished Gentleman'.

    Diabolical broadcasting the true opinions and thoughts of duplicitous people.

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  9. In information security, I suspect it's 'even more nebulous' as to the original actors and their intents than in traditional intelligence.
    That said, there *are* ways in which a particular entity can reliably claim credit for an attack. For example, if an attacker left a note signed with their private key, they can later inform the victim of their involvement in the hack by pointing the victim to the public key which validates the note.
    In this kind of space, that's the *only* thing that would give me some confidence that I knew who the attacker really was (and would know that my ransom dollars weren't going to yet-another-scammer).
    From what I've read, they've been led on a wild goose chase trying to fingerprint the attacks. That only tells us that either the attackers were stupid enough to leave an obvious trail or intentionally left an obvious trail (either to themselves or to someone else).
    A sophisticated attack would leave no trace: "hey, some of my data is all over the internet and my backup copies for the last year are encrypted with someone else's key!"
    It's possible there was only a partial compromise, but it sounds like their info sec guys were soundly asleep at the wheel.

    - reader #1482

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  10. IIRC non-citizens in Mexico cannot comment in any way on their political process, and violation means immediate arrest and eventual deportation....

    Sounds like we need to eject several hundred Mexican 'diplomats' in January

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  11. Dear D'Mad,

    I just saw an article that may explain the behaviors we've seen among those on the Left. Apparently, the nitrous oxide needed to pressurize the cans of whipped cream is in short supply. The story is that the plants that make this gas have been off line, and it won't be until mid January before the situation is back to normal.

    Perhaps.

    Alternately, though, I think we now know where the missing nitrous oxide has gone. We need to look at the billing records of the DNC, White House, NY Times and such to see what their orders for NO2 were!

    Green Bear

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  12. Swing by Univisión and check out their Améxica section which aims to "erase the borders" - but only the US-Mex border. The Guatemala-Mex/Belize-Mex borders don't come up

    http://www.univision.com/noticias/amexica

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  13. Here's the dealio: the IC knows few facts for certain, mostly they have educated guesses i.e. they think they know because they've triangulated information scraped up from various sources/manners. Invariably the accuracy is only so-so. Not bad enough to harm us, sometimes good enough to gain us advantage, but usually not good enough to prevent less than optimal decisions. They all know it, but it isn't in their best interest to say so. The Monday morning quarterbacking going on now is the IC agencies taking advantage of the uncertainty to maximize their importance (e.g. look! look how valuable we are! we are the wisdom, not you dumb politicos and businessmen), and jockey for position (Hey Congress, fyi that means we deserve more money before those other IC guys).

    Russian hacking? This is not a new thing! Just because the Cold War ended doesn't mean that the Russians stopped spying on us and vice versa. The only thing new today is the Chinese are in it up to their necks too. The media's "OMG Russian hacking!" that is telling witless Americans that this is new (so it must be about Trump) is specious. The Russians are always hacking, always trying, just like we are. Why? Because information is power. And information can be used to bribe suckers to get more information. That is why, by the by, the HRC disregard for security protocols is so alarming; she gave the Russians (and anyone else paying attention) information to hurt the nation as a whole, and set up a selection of individuals to be led to their doom.

    Russian hacking of the DNC and not RNC? Sometimes hacking is sophisticated but usually it's not. Phishing. It works gangbusters. Some people are just gullible that way. That's why you still get emails from Nigerians saying they have millions to give you, spamming millions is easy, and plenty fall for it. Why hack the DNC? "Why to help Trump!" say the Acela route folks. Poppycock and balderdash. They did it (assuming it was all done by Russians) for information. They did it to make HRC insiders bribable. Had they gotten through to the RNC (and likely just dumb luck that they didn't) Trump et al. would be in the same pickle.

    Trump and Putin being buddies. Good god. Are we in high school? When people say they admire Putin, it's because they admire that he doesn't pussyfoot around, not that they admire the choices he makes/actions he takes. Think about it. Trump's cabinet picks? Decision-makers all. And decision-makers who know how the world works (i.e. they understand human nature and that only incentives get people to act in their best interests that also happen to benefit you).

    (Can I digress? The Obama re-set ridiculousness? The assumption that if the US was nice, why the Russians would be too! How stupid! It is not in Russia's best interests to be nice to us, and ignoring that human nature aspect did nothing but elevate Russia on the world stage.)

    Ok, rant over. But seriously, when I hear the palavering from supposedly smart people who can't see reality, it just boggles my mind. And strangely, makes me extra grateful Trump et al. are in place.

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    1. Yes, it is very good. It amazes me too that some people are shocked that the Russians, Chinese, etal are spying. Well it's their job. They may not have my interest or my countries interest at heart, but they don't work for me or the US.

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    2. Your excellent commentary, requires a minor correction, the RESET button fiasco was actually a Hilliary initiative, confirming once again that this hysterical, dangerous woman must never again hold any kind of power.

      https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=us%20russia%20reset%20button

      Further your comment "IC knows few facts for certain, mostly they have educated guesses i.e. they think they know because they've triangulated information scraped up from various sources/manners. Invariably the accuracy is only so-so. Not bad enough to harm us, sometimes good enough to gain us advantage, but usually not good enough to prevent less than optimal decisions." requires definition of what it is-they are feelings, not facts as the spies would have us believe. Of course progressives love their feelings, and in a significant way it displays that the spying community are as infested with leftists as the "law" and "justice" communities are.

      It is hoped that the Trump presidenct will see a major cull of the existing operatives, they have proved their unreliabilty time after time, just as the Iran invasion was based on extreme faulty "feelings".

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    3. "the Iran invasion": that's off now; Hellary lost.

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    4. Thanks dearieme for your gentle correction. Iran should of course read Iraq.

      I see the electoral college votes proceed and Hilliary has indeed lost. Cue even more intense progressive bewilderment and hysteria. Wish your favourite progressive a Merry Trump Christmas just to confound them.

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  14. It's much simpler than that. Ask them how the Russians kept Hillary from campaigning in Wisconsin. Staffers told her she needed to campaign there and she decided against it.

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  15. This "intel" was created by a small subgroup of people who took the theory "the Russians did it" and did their best to fit the facts. Another group had, The Chinese, another had ISIS, someone else had NorK, the CIA likely even had an inside job group.
    Convenient that the only one leaked was the Russia theory. And likely completely wrong. Looking at the gains Putin has made with 8 years of Obama/Clinton/Kerry (the Crimea, 20% of our Uranium, ability to support Syria with no US interference, US reductions in nuclear weapons, etc)...Putin would have loved a Hillary POTUS; especially since he likely has her entire server on file and can blackmail her into submission (though that crazy lady would likely have started throwing nukes at Moscow...).

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  16. Don't forget Obama also told the Russians to "knock it off".

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