Just Speculating: Did Iran Hand Us Soleimani?

OK. Don't hold me to anything I am going to write here. This is just me speculating. I am not an expert on Iran, but then neither is any one of the dozens and dozens of pundits who has suddenly  appeared on television and in print offering views on what's going on with and within Iran. None of those folks knows. So you and I can be as "expert" as any of them.

After some spirited discussions with my clever number two Diploson, I am coming to the conclusion--I can be talked out of it--that General Qasim Soleimani got handed to us by a faction or factions within Iran's ruling circle. Let me 'splain.

The late unlamented QS was a "terror mastermind," designing and heading terror operations carried out by the Iranians for the past thirty or so years. Those ops included, among many others, the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut, the bombing of the Khobar Towers, the bombing of the Jewish center in Buenos Aires, attacks on our troops in Iraq, perhaps Benghazi, and, of course, the recent attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad. He set up and maintained a network of proxy organizations around the world to carry out terror operations against Israel, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Lebanon, and on and on. In recent months, he had been brought in to help suppress dissent inside Iran; his Revolutionary Guard thugs shot, detained, and tortured thousands of anti-regime Iranian protestors.

What do we know about the internal workings of the Iranian regime? Not much--and I don't think those talking heads on TV do, either.

We safely can assume, however, that the Tehran regime is beset with all the "normal" rivalries and schisms present in such gangster regimes. The rise to prominence of QS, and his increasingly dangerous behavior, had to raise concerns among many within that regime. I can see some concluding that QS and his policies would lead Iran into a war with the United States, especially under Trump, that Iran could not win, and that could result in the destruction of the Tehran regime. Don't forget, under Trump the regime has faced increasing and very harmful economic sanctions. Life is not very pleasant in Iran.

Don't, therefore, be surprised if it turns out that people within the regime, through any number of channels and proxies, could have slipped us the info on where QS was, where he was going to be, and what he was doing. They might have helped paint the target on him. The speed with which the US acted against QS in Iraq was quite remarkable, and would seem to indicate we were ready and waiting for him.

Thus far, it seems, it seems, it seems, that Iran's much threatened retaliation for our pulverizing QS and his cohorts has consisted of firing off some ballistic missiles into the Iraqi desert and claiming "revenge." The Iranians, reportedly, tipped off the Iraqis and the neutral Finns that they were going to launch these missiles presumably so that US forces got tipped off and moved out of danger. It would seem, there's that word, that the Iranians want to put an end to the current confrontation in a face-saving manner.

We, of course, will have to see what the President says this morning, and whether Iran or the US has any further actions it will undertake.

If I am full of nonsense, please don't hesitate to let me know. I know you will. Just remember what I said at the top.