OK, with great trepidation, I weigh in on the Nord Stream (NS) disruption.
As you all know, a variety of official and non-official Scandinavian, German, and other sources reported about two days ago that the NS pipelines (both, one?) had developed huge methane gas leaks, in at least three different spots. The Danish navy provided some dramatic video of the ocean bubbling and roiling as the gas erupted into the atmosphere from the sea.
Lots of commentary about what a huge ecological-economic disaster these leaks would prove. I will leave that discussion to the "experts." Just as they have so accurately told us everything we need to know about COVID, global climate change, and the number of genders, they will, certainly, inform us as to what we need to know in that regard.
I am more concerned about the speculation about who caused the leak. I have heard reports from Sweden and Netherlands about explosions detected by seismological equipment just before the leaks were noted. Is that true? I don't know, and the journalists" writing this stuff don't know either.
What could be the explanation for these blasts/leaks? Lots of speculation, repeat speculation, that it was Putin's boys who did this to freeze out Germany and NATO as winter approaches. Moscow's old friend "General Winter" has been called back into service, apparently.
Eh . . . I am not convinced.
Now, of course, we "know" that Russia threw the 2016 election to Trump . . . and . . . oh, wait, that wasn't true, was it? But, Putin thought about it, without a doubt.
Anyhow, it is not clear to my little retired brain why Russia would blow up a critical piece of infrastructure in which Russia has a majority stake, and which provides Moscow much needed foreign currency. To starve out NATO? Yeah, but wouldn't it be easier to shut off the pipelines? One apparently wasn't operating, and the other wasn't at full capacity anyways . . . blow up the infrastructure? Russia? Got my doubts.
Did the USA do it? Did the US blast the NS? God, I hope not; despite all the idiot talk by "President" Biden and clowns such as Toria Newland about how we would shut down NS. I would hope (a forlorn hope?) that enough reasonable people remain even in this illegitimate regime to reject such an order, or at the minimum leak it--like methane gas. Blowing up the NS is pretty much akin to war.
Would we have done such a thing without clearing it with the UK, Germany, and NATO? Without girding ourselves for the Russian response? I have doubts, but am willing to admit I might be wrong.
There is lots of speculation about how only a nation with deep-sea diving capabilities could have done it, in other words, the US navy. Nah. In today's computer-mad, internet world, is it too crazy to think about some sort of savvy internet hackers as culprits? Could hackers either working for extremist environmentalists, rabid anti-Moscow hackers, or, how about, Ukraine have carried out some sort of virus-laden sabotage? The US and Israel, for example, have conducted such hacking operations against Iran's computer-controlled nuclear program centrifuge machines. Computer geeks out there, tell me.
These leaks could also, of course, result from the well-known Russian managerial incompetence that gave us Chernobyl and the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier. A real possibility: one which should be at the top of any list of potential culprits.
I just hope our fingerprints aren't on this.
Dip, the seismic data coinciding with the leaks is pretty strong evidence that the pipeline was deliberately sabotaged, IMHO. As for why, I cannot understand how anyone thought this was a good idea. The idea of Plausible Deniability is nuts, given that so few players have the capabilities.
ReplyDeleteThey've been poking the Bear with a stick. Now, they've taken to beating the Bear on the head with the stick. Not good.
The water depth at the points of the pipeline failures is about 70 meters (easily checked on published maps). That is 230 feet, within the range of scuba diving with special gas mixtures like Nitrox, Trimix and others. Frog-people who train with this stuff could place explosives on the pipe manually without the aid of subs.
ReplyDeleteAgree with you that Russia blowing up its own infrastructure makes little sense, just to try to claim 'clean-hands' in the gas shut-off. No one believes anyone else in this, so why waste the effort?
The cui bono argument on this will burn hot for a long time. But that's not the most worrying part. That is the deliberate drive to NOT allow, much less push for a peaceful settlement in the Ukrainian conflict. Countries only prosecute conflicts to a crushing end once war is declared. I think it was Sun Tzu who advised against leaving your enemy no way out of a conflict as the enemy may then choose to fight to the death.
I have often mentioned that there should some nice tropical islands that could be offered to tyrants, despots, dictators, and other loose screws as an out. Guaranteed security, luxury accommodations, food, water, etc... but you cannot leave and no communications out but can receive communications. Lootin' Putin is like a shark that must keep moving or else die. He cannot back down or lose face so as mentioned above, leave an out or else they will take as many with them as they can.
DeleteThey have pulled a Cortez-burning-his-ships move. I’ve heard it was deeper water. The Ukraine wouldn’t do this without US approval. We did it. Bet many Germans will be pissed, especially when fertilizer/ heat runs short. Go long on wood stove manufacturers. Went to hearth and patio. Salesman told me they up 40% since last year.
ReplyDeleteSidV
I wouldn't put it past the Ukrainians. If there are two lessons to learn here, 1) Russians are easy to overestimate, 2) Ukrainians are easy to underestimate.
ReplyDeleteI also wouldn't blame them a bit, their people are dying while German politicians waffle... and so long as the US didn't 'know' about it, and nobody could pin the blame directly on Ukraine, I can't see the US getting all upset.
Russia's energy reserves are in one of the most difficult places to attack area in the world. There's simply no access by which an enemy could reduce Russian oil production infrastructure.
Pipelines and terminals heading out, on the other hand...
But in the end, I would put my money on Mossad taking vengeance for Russia bombing of/near a group of jews traveling to Ukraine to celebrate the new year. If Ukraine had done it, they'd be taunting Putin on social media about "not smoking near munition stockpiles" and such.
Mossad is also largely credits with stuxnet taking out Iran's separation infrastructure by running their centrifuges to infinity rpm.
If there are networked booster pumps and valves, ramp the pumps up and suddenly close the valve.. hope for a 'water hammer' type effect?
- reader #1482
I do not know but if the Russians built this pipeline my guess would be a high pressure test caused to failures, due to Russian merde construction. Excuse my French.
ReplyDeleteAnother pipeline break is being reported this morning. With the world watching this region closely, it happens again? Not likely. Maybe Russian infrastructure is no better than the Russian military structure once put to the test. Corruption and graft doomed their military once put in the field. The people who laid the under water pipes have been paid and promoted or maybe fled the country.
DeleteThat's still my hope.
DeleteSo, I am a computer geek, or more to the point a network engineer. I would place the damage to both pipelines to be something outside of what hackers could do. There would have been automation that would allow for over pressurization of the pipeline enough so that it would fracture. It is a liquefied natural gas pipeline, so I think that the people who design the control systems for the pipeline would have automatic undefeatable mechanical limiters on the cubic feet per minute that could be sent through to prevent an over pressure. On the other hand. It would be in the realms of hacking to shut down the pipelines. Either through direct penetration of the control systems and locking out the operators like what was done with the east coast gasoline pipeline ransom early in President Select’s usurpation, or by hacking supporting infrastructure like the electrical power to the pipeline terminal. Unfortunately, it does really come down to the U.S. Navy as the culprit. Yes, you can reach the pipeline depths with specialized diving equipment. The logistics of obtaining explosives that can work at those depths and getting a team in place to set them without drawing attention is something only the US Navy could pull off. This is what happens with the minions run the show. A lucid president would have a lot more trepidation about committing an overt act of war. But we don’t have one of those. Instead, we have a corrupt impetuous charlatan, puppeteered by unknown forces. Who smugly stated he would shut down those pipelines with any means available. Russia will retaliate against our energy infrastructure, and it’s going to come more overtly than ransom hackers. I wonder if the EU is going to do anything when their citizens are freezing to death because there is no way to get them gas even at Putin prices now. I expect that there is going to be a lot more “Let’s go Brandon” chanting on the continent. Once we lose a refinery or two and gas spikes over 10 dollars a gallon, there will be more “let’s go Brandon” here too. Meanwhile President select’s flaks will declare these events as good, and even more reason to cease petroleum production entirely.
ReplyDeleteI dunno.. the long running claim is that stuxnet abused similar limiting protocols in iran's isotope separation operations to destroy pretty much a whole infrastructure. Presuming Russia engineered the pipeline controls underlying it, I wouldn't be surprised if they're susceptible to physical sabotage via a similar attack. US utilities are also very strongly tempted to 'invest' in similar automation marketed on the cheap by Huawei and its fronting organizations. Buy something built carefully, or something of unknown origin for 10% of the price? Most IT groups will find excuses to do the latter. Looks good to the bosses, gets invites to golf with important-people.
Delete- reader #1482
Interesting viewpoint from someone with much experience in the oilfields. He is quite certain it is crap Russian maintenance at work. https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html
ReplyDeleteI think Law Dog has the answer to the event. Don't credit malice, when stupidity covers the facts better.
DeleteOdd, I just read that Law Dog piece and wading through the unnecessary verbal flourishes, he does make some interesting points based on his experiences.
DeleteIt's possible that Lawdog has it right, but Nordstream 1 had been flowing, so should not have had a chance for hydration to occur. Nordstream 2 has not flowed since it was filled, so there should not have been any water buildup yet . Normally it takes a lot of gas throughput to provide that much water. Show me that the rupture locations were at a major low point that would collect water and I might buy the argument a bit more, otherwise the odds of the ruptures being so close together are miniscule.
DeleteAs a specialist in the computer field, I can say that while it would be possible for hackers to cause a major incident, in my opinion that would likely involve over pressure. I doubt that was case here given the low flow pressure prior to the incident.
ReplyDeleteThe fact there were multiple incidents of major size doesnt really fit a maintenance breakdown.
There are a number of circumstantial indicators of US involvement unfortunately. 46 saying he was going to take out the pipeline is at the top of the list.
PWG
I worked for many years on natural gas pipelines. Nordstream is not an NGL pipeline, it is a regular compressed gas pipeline, though according to wikipedia it was designed to run at 220bar (3200psi) which is double / triple the industry average for older main lines. The pipeline is minimum 26mm wall thickness which is pretty stout. Given four reported different rupture locations (some widely separated), the time differential of the ruptures, the reports of strong explosions, plus the age of the pipeline and the fact it was not flowing much / any significant volume (therefore at lower operating pressure), you can pretty much rule out mechanical failure.
ReplyDeleteIan Fleming wrote "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action".
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThere would be no liquid water in the pipeline if the pressure were 3,200 psi at temperatures likely at the bottom of the Baltic. The water and methane would form solid hydrates or clathrates and plug the line. For the water/methane phase diagram see
ReplyDeletehttps://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse4.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.Eevu7EyfdbwsaFJTMsVaLQHaGr%26pid%3DApi&f=1&ipt=63e2c6978fa8c4d512c134fc96f4d395f17e015310bf98ac9cda0a4bc16d739f&ipo=images
Isn't it interesting how many people with actual technical knowledge of pipelines are contributing to Dip's blog. In the past he's referred to his half dozen readers, which is low, of course. However, he ain't Instapundit. All this leads to a thought I had.....
ReplyDeleteI'm a chemical engineer with experience at a Fortune 500 company R&D facility. We couldn't do the complete design and delivery of a bomb to do the damage reported for the Nordstream pipelines. However, we could come close. Given sufficient money, my SWAG is in the low millions of dollars, we could find the experts needed to augment our own skills and deliver workable bombs. They'd be big, crude, and inefficient, but they'd work.
If I'm right about our capabilities, looking at only nation states as the culprit is casting too narrow a net. The fact that the explosions registered on seismic instruments suggests that the culprit wasn't a sophisticated actor who could have punched the holes with carefully designed and placed small shaped charges.
If we expand the possible culprit list beyond nation states, what do we get?
Obviously it's a conspiracy involving the Pope, the Freemasons, the Rothschilds and the Queen. But the Queen is dead. Tricky.
ReplyDeleteYou forgot Israel and Donald Trump
DeleteSo I suppose it might be DOTUS after all. Maybe the Ukrainians bribed him again.
ReplyDeleteLawDog at The LawDog Files has an interesting theory involving methane hydrate plugging the pipeline, the explosion was triggerd by Russian attempts at mainenence.
ReplyDeleteWell now it's official -FJB says it was sabotage.
ReplyDelete“Let me say this: It was a deliberate act of sabotage, and now the Russians are pumping out disinformation and lies,” Biden told reporters at the White House on Friday.
That statement by DOTUS is not actually a denial. Why?
DeleteOn reflection: it starts with a boast - the only way DOTUS can be sure that it was a deliberate act of sabotage is if he's the man who gave the orders for it. That's his implicit boast.
DeleteIt continues with a commonplace complaint that the Russian government is as dishonest as the American government.
I suspect the purpose of the statement is to say to European governments "we are quite prepared to be utterly ruthless at ensuring you stay under our thumb." I dare say they've all got the message.
The problem, dearieme, is that you assume that the illegitimate Biden regime gives a damn about US interests and maintaining the US position in the world. They don't.
DeletePerhaps. But it may be enough that the Bidenistas just expect to be handsomely bribed by someone or other not to puncture more pipelines. I wonder how much Britain and Norway would be prepared to pay to ensure that their gas connection is left untouched?
DeleteBe that as it may it's hard to see any other country with as much to gain from the attack as the USA except countries - e.g. Saudi Arabia or Iran - which are presumably incapable of carrying it out.
On third thoughts, how about China? I can construct a conjecture as to how she might gain but the scene of the crime is a hell of a long way from her patch. So I doubt it. The USA is till the comfortable favourite.
DeleteDearieme, You're right. Those are all valid points.
DeleteBiden's statement reads as a projective self-indictment.
ReplyDeleteAs retired NYPD homicide commander, Vernon Geberth calls it, 'the classic mistake of the criminal', putting oneself into the crime.
I agree that the lawdog piece sounds like the answer. Not even the Biden regime is that stupid.
ReplyDelete"Not even the Biden regime is that stupid."
DeleteHuh? Surely you Jest Doc!
OW~~~
];~}
"Let's Roll"
By the way, our brilliant White House press secretary described it as "the Nordstrom pipeline."
ReplyDeleteNo doubt new shoes were ‘top of mind’.
DeleteThe Lawdog piece does not stand up. Remember that gas is carefully & expensively dehydrated before it is put into a pipeline -- no water inside to form a methane hydrate. Remember also that there was no flow or very low flow in the gas lines at the time of the incident -- no energy to drive a methane hydrate plug to high velocity. Remember also that Gazprom operates one of the largest gas pipeline networks in the world, with remarkably few incidents.
ReplyDeleteBut the biggest flaw in Lawdog's hypothesis is that he is effectively alleging that the same extremely rare failure happened in 3 separate pipelines (Nordstream 1 is actually two parallel pipelines) on the same day. Probability of that is effectively zero.
The more sustainable hypothesis is sabotage. The obvious target of the sabotage was the German people, who now cannot throw out NATO and cut a deal with Russia to get gas directly. The obvious beneficiary is Biden's crew, who have reduced the risk of Germany abandoning Biden's proxy war.
How did Biden's crew do it. Here is one guy who thinks that the US Navy used air-dropped torpedoes. I am not convinced -- but at least it is a better hypothesis than Lawdog's.
https://www.monkeywerxus.com/blog/the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-sabotage
seems like there are a hundred treasure hunting outfits that could verify or negate such claims with remote underwater inspection services.
Delete- reader #1482
"seems... a hundred treasure hunting outfits...
Deletethat could verify or negate such claims..." #1482
But of the 100, WHO can 'we the people' TRUST?
OW~~~
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVTjSnDBZiA
Maybe I can help you with that HUMP Igor?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxxSIX3fmmo
"Let's Roll"
facts on the ground are verifiable... whodunit would be a bigger guessing game
Delete"facts on the ground are verifiable..."anon
DeleteYes Br'er anon, BUT, the "ground" is 200+feet
Under, thee Salt Water [NaCl+H2O]~~~~~~~~
OW~~~
Shhh Silent Serv~~~
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M2v-pkSIQY
"Let's Roll"
swedes seem to have now confirmed that it was indeed breached by explosives.
Delete- reader #1482
I'd look for highly leveraged outfits that have been betting on 'even higher' energy prices in the EU in general.
Delete- reader #1482
"swedes seem to have now confirmed that it was indeed breached by explosives. - reader #1482"
DeleteYes but, dear reader, the Danes, in the article
I read, reported no such dirty deeds, and that
all pipelines were then, pumping under pressure.
Will see if I can relocate that article, or I may be
left to conclude that the new breed of Populist
Swedes, are more truthful than my cousins the
4th of July Danes...Lord have mercy~~~
On Watch~~~
If only the Chief was aboard to translate!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aG8r7i_0ds
"Let;s Roll"
thus far, this is all I've seen from the danes
Delete------------
"It is the authorities' assessment that these are deliberate actions. It is not an accident," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday, hardening an assessment from earlier in the day. "The situation is as serious as it gets," she added in remarks carried on Danish media.
------------
'not an accident' doesn't specify whether it was an external explosive... if it was, then there are only a few groups who would've been able to pull that off... if it were a deliberate malfunction caused by compromised control mechanisms (ie, remote hacking) then it would presumably not look like an external explosion. Guessing it's an external explosion, but nobody has a clue who did it... without some clear evidence... seems unlikely we'll know with any certainty.
Thing is... people in this day and age are loathe to accept that we just don't know certain things.
Liberals cannot accept the fact that humanity, with all its science and computational power, cannot reliably forecast or control global climate trends.
With the ordinary person having access to powerful search engines, it must be frustrating or even unacceptable to contemplate that there are things beyond humanity's precise knowledge or control. It's likely even worse for employees of those "all knowing" search engines and media companies, where they're used to having vast amounts of power at their fingertips.
But being unhappy about the state of knowledge of difficult-to-know things doesn't mean we just make stuff up and declare it 'settled'.
It's the same thing here, imo, we will not likely have an answer to who did this... whether or not it was a false flag event... etc. That is unacceptable to people who want to have strong opinions on it. Instead of getting over our lack of knowledge, they, imo, bury their head in a sandpit of their own making.
- reader #1482
Tks for the recap, update,
Deleteand Thought Full analysis~~~
- reader #1482~~~
OW~~~
"Let's Roll"
Indeed. Underwater Remote Operated Vehicles are routinely used in the North Sea, which is relatively close. But when NATO hires one of those ROVs and finds Russian passports beside the damaged pipelines, who is going to believe that NATO did not plant them there?
ReplyDeleteCredibility is in very short supply in this situation -- on all sides!
but it can be established whether it was an external explosive, or a maintenance problem / possibly the result of a hack like stuxnet.
Delete- reader #1482
This is just baseless speculation on my part, but aren't the major oil companies VERY well versed and experience in undersea technologies>
ReplyDeleteJust read that the "investigation" into the cause of the coincidental ruptures in 3 of the 4 Nordstream gas pipelines is being led by ... the Copenhagen Police!
ReplyDeletePersonally, I have nothing against the police department of the fine city of Copenhagen. Maybe their capabilities do extend to identifying the cause of underwater explosions beside massive gas pipelines. But this does rather smell like the Clinton Administration putting the US National Park Police in charge of the strange suicide (Arkancide?) of Vince Foster.
...this does rather smell like the Clinton Administration putting the US National Park Police in charge of the strange suicide (Arkancide?) of Vince Foster.
DeleteMaybe so Brer Gavin,
but they, CPD do indeed have
some actual Submarine experience:
"Today, the Prosecution Service at Copenhagen Police Department has brought charges against Peter Madsen in the submarine case. Among other things, he is charged with homicide, indecent handling of a corpse, and other sexual relations than intercourse with the female Swedish journalist, Kim Wall."
...Park Service hurumph
Now that's, getting
to the bottom o' things~~~
https://anklagemyndigheden.dk/en
OW~~~
Dive Deeper
stay down longer~~~
"Let's Roll"
Nice post thank you Dewitt
ReplyDelete