Sunday, June 18, 2023

Ukraine: You Crane for the Truth

Does anybody in the public square know and will reveal what is happening in Ukraine? 

I have never seen, heard, or read about any major war with as little verifiable information out for the public, a public which is expected to support Kyiv, condemn Russia, and put up with a devastated global economy that benefits China, and greatly weakens the West's military posture. We see and hear little debate about major events, such as the demolition of the Nord stream pipeline, the blowing up of the Kakhovka dam, and the much ballyhooed and well-advertised Ukrainian offensive undertaken with, supposedly, a bazillion dollars worth of Western military equipment.  

Reading between the lines of the scant reports coming out on that offensive, it, no surprise, does not seem going too well, appearing to consist of a massive waste of lives and treasure with little to show in the positive column. Even amateur military historians such as my son and this humble blogger wondered about an offensive of this type given Russian air and artillery superiority, and the amount of time the Russians have had to prepare their defenses--e.g., minefields. As I noted, what little information--a bit in the Wall Street Journal--does emerge reveals that the Ukrainians have run into precisely those Russian strengths.  

Meanwhile, the West piles on more and more sanctions on Russia with undetermined effect on Russia, but a negative effect on Western firms and economies. We continue to strip our military forces, all to the benefit of China.

You want a sanction on Russia? One that will actually bite? Easy. Resume US oil production, and make the US energy independent again. So many problems will vanish . . . 

The truth remains elusive, and our lying leadership and bureaucracy will not let us get more than a glimpse of it. They are too busy quashing political dissent, flying Pride flags, and pushing ahead with destructive DEI and ESG policies. 

16 comments:

  1. Russia's increasingly desperate actions (blowing up the dam, attacking civilian facilities, moving nukes to Belarus, etc.) speak volumes about just how poorly they are doing in this war, and are starting to hint at a "scorched earth if we can't have the territory that we want" endgame. And Putin continues to be an anti-Semite: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pi62v2dEjo

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    1. Excluding Bibi, Vladimir Vladimirovich is the last world leader I'd ever call anti-Semitic, one of the major reasons the Bidet hates him.

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    2. Look, you might be right about the war; I don't know which was the point of my post. Nobody knows, at least not in the public arena. It is not clear that Russia blew up the dam, given that Ukraine had tried before to blow it up using HIMAR rockets. Attacks on civilians have been done by both sides since at least 2014. The announced move--emphasis on announced--of tactical nukes to Belarus probably has more to do with Russian fears of what NATO might do next. We just don't know.

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    3. That's the key. Blowing up the dam is more a sign of Ukranian desperation in light of their failed offensive--and now Zelensky is making claims about Zaparozhie NPP. Not good at all.

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    4. I think Ukraine blew up that dam preemptively. So long as it was intact, it represented an ongoing liability for Ukrainian operations downstream. They blew it up and nobody in the west should be asking questions about it... same goes for Nord Stream. If Biden order it blown up (I'm certain he didn't), he should be commended for doing it and for lying about it.
      "Hey... they're hiding stuff at Blechley Park! We'd better tell Hitler and everybody who will listen that the UK is hiding clandestine operations at Blechley Park!"
      ^^ this is out stupid idiot journalism today.

      - reader #1482

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    5. Russia blew up their own pipeline and now they blew up a damn in territory they've already occupied! Turn off CNN.

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  2. Does anybody in the public square know and will reveal what is happening in Ukraine? I have never seen, heard, or read about any major war with as little verifiable information out for the public. . . .

    Agreed. I used to follow and analyse this sort of thing for a living. I can't think of a war (during my time, or before) with so much 'information' and so little information.

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    1. Honestly, we have little to compare with... the invasion of Iraq was pretty much a walk in the park... complete air superiority and suppression of enemy air defenses.. and a comparatively (to Ukraine) tiny loss rate in soldiers that was still unacceptable regarding apparent rules of engagement.
      Afghanistan? Did we ever have an actual 'war' there? The US just implemented its 20-year plan to hand Panjshir to the Taliban, as far as I can tell.
      In Vietnam, did 'journalism' serve any value to America?
      We aren't hearing the straight facts behind the Ukraine conflict, and that's the correct status for this situation.
      Like in Iraq-2, the US is asking too little of it's people. If the Ukraine conflict is important to our national security, we should be raising and diverting taxes, issuing bonds specific to the effort, and asking civilians to focus their efforts.
      That said, there are some basic facts that are clear to me: 1) Ukraine made no notable physical attack on Russia prior to the invasion, 2) Ukraine withstood the attack better than expected, but with the exception of the September surprise, is still getting its butt handed to them (continual attrition and gradual loss of territory).
      In my estimation, pretty much all other reported facts are jumping at shadows. Would be nice to have a secret stream of internal discussions within the kyiv and biden regimes, but I'd probably be just very disappointed.
      This is how a republic is supposed to work. We're supposed to elect people to determine laws and policies so the rest of us can do useful stuff without being bothered by the government.

      - reader #1482

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  3. I had a good source until a few days ago. The proprietor, a Special Forces vet, has to monitor a great deal of content. Hopefully he shut down for some site maintenance or simple r&r. He has to decline a lot of Russian IOs and a lot of nutcase conspiracy types as well.

    Suffice it to say, if the Russian army plus mercs, mobiks and cons couldn't take down Kiev and then the rest of Ukraine in short order, then the 10 foot tall Russians we all believed in, never were and the whole world sees it, especially the Chinese and the 'stans'.

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    1. As history has shown us, Russians can learn and adapt. The West's endless "Russia is a paper tiger militarily" thing has to stop. It's not like we are doing that great these days, either. After 20+ years of COIN, whomever is training the UKA has forgotten a lot of basic lessons--like attacking without sufficent artillery and air support. And you can't train people for a few weeks and pronounce them proficient. It just doesn't work that way.

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  4. Some have said that Russia is trying to annex neighbors because of a falling population. If so, they are spending lives to get land that is becoming more and more unpopulated. With the size disparity, Russia can use the "3 yards and a cloud of dust" to grind Ukraine down but, from the outside, it looks to be a pyrrhic victory. Totally agree on increasing oil production in the US as a countermeasure, but that would require more competence than is on display at the moment.

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  5. I am convinced that the long term goal of the Democrats is to kill off most of the world population. Either through wars, starvation, drugs, or turned into Eunuchs.

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  6. It wouldn't make sense for the public to have an accurate conception of what's going on in Ukraine. Unlike a certain potus who encourages invasions by telling aggressors "we promise not to directly defend this country if you invade", these things should be managed by elected representatives. Not sure if that's a wise idea in this situation, but we have little choice.
    This war pits the PRC vs the US via Russia and Ukraine.
    Russia would have folded without the PRC's electronic warfare capabilities (crazy amount of Ukrainian drones are DJI stock, which is totally stupid... unsurprising the PRC has provided Russia with the means to kill those off efficiently).
    Russia's GDP is something like 10% of the PRCs... it's unsurprising that Russia has been growing to be the junior partner.

    - reader #1482

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  7. Simplicius has the best analysis on the conflict I’ve seen so far. A bit pro Russian and anti U.S., but his posts are very in depth with lots of back up,

    https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/dissecting-west-point-think-tanks

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    1. Yep--it's one of the better and more detailed blogs that actually backs things up with evidence, where it can be obtained. Certainly more informative than anything our own MSM is putting out.

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