Just got back to SoCal from a few days in DC, Virginia, and North Carolina. Biggest shock was the intensity of the electoral campaign in those regions. Here in Deep Blue SoCal, we get very little national political advertising and the election is not a major topic of discussion.
My DC-based son gave me an in-depth lesson on polling and how these things are manipulated to skew the results. In almost every poll he showed me, the Democrat sample is overrepresented, at times by quite a bit. Anyhow, he thought most of the polls are fakes designed to boost the chances for The Hillary. He is convinced that The Donald will win. I am more cautious, having gone through this before.
Whatever the result of the vote on the 8th, America will never be the same again. This is a watershed election much like those in 1860, 1932, 1964, and 1980. If Trump does not win, I see little chance in any foreseeable future for a Republican to take the White House. Even if he does win, the political and social tides are running against the GOP, and the traditional Anglo culture which made this country into a great nation.
Anyhow, I am hoping for the best, and resigned to the worst.
See you on the other side.
If Trump loses narrowly, I am going to blame this entirely on Republican governors like (Scott Walker) for not adopting the ME/NE allocation of electoral votes. It's more representative of the will of the people, it forces campaigns to pay some attention to states they would otherwise ignore (one of the most annoying things to me the past several elections is that only seven or so states are important in terms of candidate time and advertising dollars, and the rest mostly get passed over - although some residents of the non-battleground states may prefer it that way), and it isolates problems (one EV for each congressional district, and two for the state as a whole means disputed totals are much more unlikely to affect the election as a whole).
ReplyDeleteThe fact that it would help Republicans in Wisconsin (and if the country as a whole adopted it) is merely a coincidence. :)
So here is what I think will happen (I am not joking). Trump wins Florida (obviously a must), North Carolina, Ohio, and Maine's second district, but loses Nevada (despite being ahead in most polls there, I think Nevada is (semi-) permanently lost to the Republicans. That puts him at 260 electoral votes. I think that vote fraud in Pennsylvania is too much to overcome, so that is probably not the path to victory. The state I think Trump will surprise in is... Colorado (for the TIE). He gets to to the finish line (269), there are several more weeks of chaos, and the House Republicans have to drag him the last little bit next January (and of course, Hillary wins the popular vote). A perfect ending to this crazy election season, right?
Mad,
ReplyDeleteI believe the tide is running against the Dems. Oh, what was the GOP is as dead as the Monty Python parrot, but I do agree this is a watershed election. The (whatever you want to call them) burned every bit of their credibility and called in every chit they have to get her elected, all they have left is coercion and criminality and those don't take you that far. So to conclude no matter who is elected the great changes afoot will continue.
Perhaps we can also see this as a great stride against a return to monarchy.
Delete- reader #1482
#1482,
Delete"Perhaps we can also see this as a great stride against a return to monarchy." Perhaps, I don't know. That falls into the unknowable. Yes. I supported Trump, but I fall into the old american tradition of not trusting any politician, especially the ones I have supported. They must all be watched constantly.
I think what a lot people have missed is that Trump was in front of a movement that he really was part of, at least at first. While Hillary was her side or movement. Which I guess is a really confusing way to say that with or without Trump there was a ground swell of opinion that end the end would manifest itself Trump or no Trump.
It should read "he was not part of"
DeleteAs usual, I'm a contrarian here. If Hillary wins, nothing at all will change. America will flounder along, with vacuous foreign policies and a continued pandering to the nonproductive, at the expense of the productive.
ReplyDeleteAll this encouraged by an even more leftist Supreme Court.
And then in 4 years the same old career politicians will be out again, with the same arguments designed to hold their jobs.
Graham
Added thought: of course, with the media 90% on one side, and living as we do in a media-obsessed world now, the odds of change are slim to none.
DeleteGraham
For some time, as I watched Bernie and Donnie succeed beyond expectations I began to hope that the votes would inform established Dems and Donts that the oldye ways are failing. Had similar expectations when I voted--twice!! for Perot. Now I am pretty pessimistic. Seems like the Clinton Family Machine is much too powerful, she will win regardless of actual votes. Still, will actually vote, regardless. Its a shame, America had such great potential
ReplyDeleteLewis,
ReplyDeletesomething yoo might not have thought of is Israel. It will VERY grim for Israel if the clinton corruption machine wins.
Leaperman
I fear the Norwegian Blues might win.
ReplyDeleteCNN is still pretending there are enough outstanding votes in the states where Hillary is trailing for her to win those states, but even the NYT says a ninety-five percent chance that Trump wins.
ReplyDeleteGeorge Washington... Thomas Jefferson... Abraham Lincoln... DONALD TRUMP!
Starting to look likely that our top shamans in the media got the odds not quite so right. Technically, if one predicts 30% chance of Trump winning and 70% chance of Hillary winning, that's really not very far from a 50/50 coin toss when it comes to a single event like this.
ReplyDeleteOf course, our predictions efforts these days are modeled using techniques no more or less sophisticated than the IPCC, so it should be unsurprising that it's neither helpful nor particularly accurate.
- reader #1482
Greetings from Downunder.
ReplyDeleteI reckon we are both happy - you have the president you wanted and I won $100 betting he would win.
Well we made it through to the other side, and Trump is victorious. Well done USA, I did not think it possible.
ReplyDeleteI am enjoying watching MSNBC lose its mind.
MSNBC has a mind to lose?
DeleteWelcome to Brexit / USA.
ReplyDeleteWell done America!
ReplyDeleteGreetings from France.
Obama begged America not to repudiate his "accomplishments". America has had enough of Obama and his "accomplishments".
ReplyDeleteAmerica, when the time came to be strong, was exactly that as she always is when needed. You have every right to be proud yourselves, America, and now I anticipate Trump and the people will take the opportunity to put right what has been wronged for the last God-knows how many years.
ReplyDeleteWhat's with New Hampshire? No call yet? "Live Free or Die"? Is is now up for negotiation?
ReplyDelete