I know I've written before about the mystery stealth war in Ukraine, but I must return to this 21st century version of Big Foot.
What happened to the war into which we and our European friends have poured billions of dollars and euros in cash and fancy equipment? Where are the results? Where are the intrepid embedded journos ready, willing, and able to risk life and limb to tell us all about Russian perfidy in the wild East?
What happened to the much ballyhooed Zelensky offensive that would retake the eastern provinces of Ukraine, and recapture Crimea? We sent a bazillion dollars (minus the ten percent for the Big Guy?) and our latest awe inspiring artillery and tanks . . . so?
This sounds more and more like Orwell called it. The endless war in some far off place, with occasional reports of great victories which mean our chocolate ration must be increased from 50 grams to 35 grams! "Inflation is down to three percent from its previous one percent! Gasoline has dropped in price from $1.50/gallon to $4.00/gallon! We are winning!"
Does Ukraine join the ever-lengthening list of modern hoaxes?
Just asking for a friend . . . and my grand kids.
Bad Blue ( Doug Ross Journal) 20 Tweets had a clip of a pool party in Ukraine with lots of lovely young ladies. Not the first video I saw that life seems normal
ReplyDeleteDidn't look like a war was going on at all
It's a hard slog, no doubt. Western expectations appear to be totally unhinged. The Russian air force drastically overmatches that of Ukraine. While that's fine for Ukraine's defensive strategy, it doesn't lend itself to a large combined-arms offensive action.
ReplyDeleteThis isn't the US Marines driving to Baghdad against Hussein's corp of losers. Ukraine is facing the same crafty and vicious military that outfoxed and out-attrited the nazis.
"Hey, we gave you tanks and no aircraft, now go on the offensive, because our electorate wants to see a victory." - The Collective West.
I do think Ukraine will win this one, but Zaluzhny & co obviously aren't going to broadcast their plans or allow themselves to be cajoled by western 'expectations' into running suicide missions. They're going to shape, reshape, probe, lull, and perform every operation they can to be attacking from a point of surprise and advantage when they do. Basically, Russia is not going to fall for the 'Great Zaporizhzhia Head Fake of September 2022' again, and the UAF knows it.
It does look like they attempted some medium-sized operations in order to appease western demands, and they went *very* poorly for Ukraine.
I follow this in as much detail as I have access to on a daily basis... and we'll know things are going 'well' when ukraine reports downing russian jets. That indicates ukraine has managed to surround large groupings and Russia has been forced to employ direct air power in order to 'bomb out a path of retreat'. That hasn't happened since the Kharkiv operation last fall.
I think there's a high likelihood that a Ukrainian recapture of Bakhmut will effectively break the back of the Russian army (or one might say, that the Russian army has had it's back broken at the point where it can no longer hold Bakhmut).
It was a strategic blunder to wait 18 months and *then* start setting up training for Ukraine on F-16s. US allies have *so* many of those that are heading towards retirement that getting them to Ukraine is going to save allied air forces *billions* in disposal contracting dollars.
Seriously.... it's *far* cheaper to send these weapons/munitions to Ukraine than for the military to hire the allowably race-gender-equity-balanced companies to act as middle-men for 'unqualified' (read: competent/experienced) contractors to charge arms and legs for formal scrapping of this stuff.
Might be Ukraine-as-dumping-ground will keep the US defense budget afloat. It's all going to cost a lot... because those gender/orientation/race-qualified-owned middle-men companies will exact their pound of flesh on transportation contracts.... but it will certainly still be cheaper.
We have a much bigger problem with the dollars being spent at home for stupid woke/DEI governmental crap than we do with those being spent abroad, imo. Federal employees have been officially told they can't go into their offices in San Francisco because the area is overrun with drugs and crime. While that is true, it's also probably indicating massive fraud in US government employment and contracting. There's no way to verify 'employees' even 'show up' any more. We know how those organizations go.
At this point, I'm more hopeful for Ukraine than I am for the US.
- reader #1482
I also don't pretend Ukraine's nose is clean here. I feel that they made a grave mistake in driving Yanukovych from power by force after he was certified by the OSCE as having been elected in polls that were reasonably fair. I think some group got frustrated at a lack of progress towards their european-joining-goals and went too far. They should have had patience and made converts among the rest of Ukraine over time. I understand their claims that they were forced to act by Putin's interventions in Ukrainian elections, but they should have made that case to the OSCE observers or impeached the credentials of the OSCE in some fashion.
DeleteThat said, the internal putsch/revolution there is no excuse for this invasion. Once Russia is out, then concerned groups, potentially including Moscow, can complain about the politics going on in Kyiv. But I think the putsch really didn't factor into this attack at all, except that Putin didn't have a Lukashenko-type patsy running Kyiv.
I don't have to like the government of Kyiv that is far too compliant with progressives for my taste in order to think they should win this war.
- reader #1482
Bakhmut is irrelevant at this point. The Russians outnumber the Ukrainians in guns, aircraft, vehicles and cohesive military formations. They are biding their time while the unfortunate Ukrainians expend themselves in uncoordinated and poorly supported attacks that haven't even reached the main Russian defensive lines. This thing is likely to be over by the end of the year, Spring at the latest. Ukraine has simply run out of men--their losses have been catastrophic, also in vehicles and equipment.
DeleteI'm suspect that the biden cartel is still getting its 10% of the billions being transferred to the Jewish comedian supposedly in charge over there.
ReplyDeleteIm gobsmacked. Four comments and not one mention of the following words, Minsk Accords Neocon Military Industrial Complex Nuland NATO Corruption Generalship Morale Boris Johnson.
ReplyDeleteHow can you pretend to have a considered mature understanding of this SMO without knowledge of the foregoing people and subjects.
A very very poor showing indeed.
this must be a joke... smo... heh..
Deleteminsk accords.. are there the bully steals yer lunch money.. being a hardworking student, you approach the principal.. the principal tells you that the only solution they'll help with is splitting the money 'evenly to be fair', otherwise the principal cannot help you with any possible reprisals from the thief.... that's the minsk accords.
DeleteA bully stealing lunch money? I’m sorry but you’ve lost me.
DeleteOh dear…..I seem to be attracting the wrong type of people.
minsk accords were set to entrench russia within the property it expropriated from ukraine in 2014... the accords took the principal's role of ignoring the origin of the conflict and saying "just split it"
DeleteMuch as the bully had no right to a penny of your lunch money, russia had no right to an acre of ukrainian land.
So hollande and merkle came up with it.... and obama/kerry wanted in on the giveaway, but were too busy bowing and writing love notes to khamenei in their 'deal at any price' JCPOA garbage.
I suppose the next claptrap is "but the JCPOA was working!"?
Minsk was one of the many US foreign policy blunders when the whole thing went stupid after 2008... probably due to the retirement of the remaining sane people at foggy bottom.
- reader #1482
Russia had no right to an acre of Ukrainian land ?
DeleteMy dear fellow, please to explain Crimea being a Russian navy base for 300 years…….and the city of Odessa being founded by Catherine the Great…..Kherson founded by Potemkin and the Donbas (Eastern Ukraine) composed of 90% ethnic Russians.
Also it may amuse you to glance over the boundaries of the various countries in and around that area over the last century after the wars and political divisions.
The Sudetenland was populated by 'ethnic Germans', the nazi took it. Israel was populated by "Palestinians", the arabs failed to take it. Heck, California is now populated with ethnic Mexicans, are there tanks building up on the border? The 'human waves' haven't transferred political power 'back' to mexico city. Plenty of excuses to choose from. None of them justify an invasion.
DeleteI have no problem with Russia asking Ukraine to gift them land. They can get together and create a treaty and even make a big hullabaloo at the UN about it. Russia can even complain about the removal of Yanukovych, much as the US should have but largely didn't. (Note, support from the US for Ukraine was appropriately tepid because of that before the invasion.)
The real problem here is the dearth of competence within Russia. In 25 years, the russians have only been able to find *one* person that they think is capable of running the country. There have been no other serious candidates. I see that as a national admission of general incompetence.
- reader #1482
Crimea was given to the Ukrainian SSR in the 40s as an administrative reward--that territory has never been Ukrainian. It was certainly under Russian administration for a lot longer, but in the late 40s it didn't really matter. The Russians so far are doing better than we want to give them credit for--but this has happened many times in history. A lot of people in the West just can seem to drop their Cold War biases.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteYou could learn a lot about what is really happening by looking for simplicius blog and a follow on of smoothie12 blog. You might get a, shall we say more balanced view.
ReplyDeleteAlso, only an idiot would think Ukraine can/could defeat Russia.
I do hope nobody's intending to defeat Russia in any traditional manner, as there would almost certainly be a nuclear catastrophe before some sort of occupation of Moscow would come to pass. Expelling the Russian army from territory recognized by the US as Ukraine's is a long-shot but possible outcome. That's the kind of 'defeat' that Ukraine may be able to inflict on Russia.
Delete- reader #1482
Only an idiot would think a poor country full of jungle could defeat the most powerful nation in the world, but North Vietnam convinced us that we were better off leaving South Vietnam. Ukraine might convince Russia of the same.
Delete~ Doctor Weasel
Anon 628: Vietnam was an American military victory converted into disaster by the Democrats in Congress. Read Frank Snepp's book for the details.
DeleteIn his autobiography "Man of the House", former Speaker Tip O'Neill talked about how the Demicratic Party started the war in Vietnam, and then how they eventually decided that it had served its original purpose, and how they could get some more juice out of it by using it to embarrass Nixon. So they waited until it looked like we were winning, then abruptly called a vote - he goes into detail about how they managed that - and de-funded the war. Nixon would be stuck with a defeat instead of a victory, everyone (Democratic, anyway) would be happy.
DeleteIn his autobiography "The White House Years", Nixon tells how it happened from his position, which substantially agrees with O'Neill's account. Without the "happy" part, though.
--TRX
Did anyone else notice the difference between the money sent to Ukraine last week and the amount sent to Maui for the disaster?
ReplyDeleteIf the Ukraine military is being force to obey US political orders, any campaign is going to be a disaster.
ReplyDeleteAs for the aid money, I doubt Hawaii has in place the smooth laundering platform that the Ukraine geldmeisters are using.
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ReplyDeleteI'm no military expert and I don't know what is happening in Ukraine or Russia now as all news is so rigidly censored. Relying on the BBC for impartial info is a waste of time. However, anyone expecting a quick end will be sadly mistaken, I think. Look at how long it took the far better armed, equipped and much larger population of the US to defeat the Confederacy - 4 years. Also, it took the Western allies of Britain, France and later the US another 4 years to defeat the Kaiser's Germany. in WW1 and WW2 lasted 6 years against a statistically much weaker foe. Russia is accustomed to enduring hardship and I think this war will drag on before a compromise peace is eventually reached - which will probably involve Ukraine ceding Crimea and the Donbass.
ReplyDeleteGood point... US intervention in this war is at the lend-lease stage right now... WWII was ~ 2.5years for the US of official hostilities (pearl harbor to nagasaki), but it was much longer for other countries.
DeleteThis war isn't going to last six years. It isn't even going to last six months. When the Russians launch larger counterattacks, Ukraine is likely to collapse--they have almost nothing left to fight with.
DeleteMaybe the russians' larger counterattacks will be another attempt on Kiev? I'm not going to expect much more than the Keystone Kops, as competence there is in short supply. Russia: 3rd world country, 2nd world military, 1st world intelligence apparatus. Wonder who said that...
DeleteRussia could still win this fwiw, the war is clearly not over.
Russia is hardly "third world". They're doing a lot better than your country which is 32 trillion dollars in debt. Talk about third word lol.
DeleteGolly Mr. Amselem, All,
ReplyDeleteYou're apparently really out of the loop.Good thing you got me checking in from time to time. The Ukraine war effort continues apace except that now its theater has had a change of venue.
The Ukraine war is now being prosecuted in Georgia.
Georgia USA that is.
JK
I dunno. Ukraine wants a shitload of f-16s? Well no prob, we got these new f-35s, Deplete the working armory, replace it with a fuckload of vaporware. Yep.
ReplyDeleteMe, above. JC
DeleteNeither the F-16 nor the F-35 make a lick of sense anymore. Maybe NGAD will focus on being a 'survivable comms platform' for drone management. Hopefully they don't task it to the same jokers who built the F-35... or rather.. really.. *didn't* build.
DeleteUkraine is kaput! It is likely never to recover. Several hundred thousand of their men killed or maimed. Millions have fled the country, not to mention the catastrophic destruction of much of their infrastructure. Worse, this war has exposed how weak and worthless the smug West and its equipment is. John Mearshimer predicted this over a decade ago.
ReplyDeleteDecades of retarded foreign policy since the first Bush have led up to this point. Russia should and could have been our natural ally as a bulwark against the chicoms. See how quickly events have deteriorated since the decrepit Biden assumed office. The Middle East has realigned, and Africa, it appears has had enough of Western bully tactics. The BRIC meetings are next week, and no doubt, will pose serious implications.
The West has been trying to commit suicide for well over a century. It looks like this time we will succeed. I firmly believe that in our heart of hearts, virtually everyone knows we are on the verge of collapse. The signs are legion. Then again, I’ve always been a cynic and a pessimist. Everything will probably be fine.
In 2015 Mearsheimer pretty much swore that Russia would never try to conquer Ukraine. I'm at risk of throwing out the baby with the bathwater, but between that and "The Israeli Lobby", I've kind of come to consider him more like Noam Chomsky.... ie, he has some advocates who are vocal and annoying, but are pointless and impotent.
Delete** our natural ally **
DeleteExactly. Those war pigs in State and Defense devised precisely the most stupid policy imaginable. What a tragic miscalculation. Sanctions backfired bigly and the dollar as reserve currency is vulnerable as never before. The world is sick and tired of US arrogance and meddling.
> natural ally
Delete---
Criminy! I've been saying that since the fall of the USSR, and people usually react like I was some kind of nut.
Whatever happened to all the billions that the administration has sent so far? Talk about a lousy investment…
ReplyDeleteI guess it's true, the US could have picked the other side in this conflict. If the goal of US interests in Ukraine were strictly 'peace', then US supplies should be heading to Russia, not Ukraine. With the Black Sea, Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Belarus and Russia all cut off, Ukraine would be isolated. If that didn't 'end the war' immediately, then joining Russia with air strikes on Kiev from Poland would probably do the job.
DeleteAs our esteemed Congresswoman "AOC" pointed out, it's only money. You just print more of it.
DeleteAnyone who objects to this is told they simply don't understand Modern Monetary Theory and advanced economics; all the best experts have assured them that lighting the afterburners on the printing presses is not only not a problem, it's actually good for the economy! Such a deal!
--TRX
Russia views Ukraine as a NATO member to be an existential threat. They feel very strongly, whether right or wrong, that they cannot allow this to happen. And, are our memories so short that we forget that the Democrats have scorned Putin and Russia as evil throughout the Trump administration? No way Ukraine will prevail. History will show the US, back to Bush/Clinton/Obama and now Biden are wasting the entire country of Ukraine. Have they told us why? The Russians make the best rockets and breed excellent chess players. Don't sell them short.
ReplyDeleteI won’t return till “Ladies and Gentlemen” are once again used at internet job, though. (012) Florida is a conservative common sense state where the majority of residents are intelligent.
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