Good or Bad for the Jews

"Good or Bad for the Jews"

Many years ago, and for many years, I would travel to Morocco to visit uncles, cousins, and my paternal grandmother. Some lived in Tangiers;...

Tuesday, August 2, 2022

China in the News, Sorta

Some ten years ago (here), I wrote in this humble blog about the-then common belief among the Great Thinkers that the 21st century would "belong" to China much as the 20th had "belonged" to the USA. 

I had doubts about that, and concluded that the 21st century would only belong to China to the degree that we gave it away. I saw neither then nor now anything intrinsically great about the thuggish CCP that would make their China into a world leader. The PRC was and is a brutish authoritarian state, albeit with large foreign currency reserves; it does not invent, or innovate in any field in particular. China's advancement such as it is, has been obtained largely by espionage, theft, purchase, bribery, and bullying of the first degree, combined with an astute understanding of the greed and the lack of patriotism of large Western corporations. 

Well, have we "given away" the 21st century to China? 

Not quite. 

There is little if any doubt--none, actually--that the Biden crime family, and others, have made enormous amounts of money from China--and Ukraine. Over the years, we have outsourced critical components of our manufacturing and technological base to China, creating an everyday dependence on Chinese production. According to official GDP figures, always suspect, China now has the second largest economy in the world. That might or might not be given the CCP's known manipulation of such numbers, including the "padding" of the Chinese economy with essentially worthless, corruption-ridden construction projects. 

It's hard to find out what's going in China. The CCP has mastered the information shutdown to a degree that would make the old Soviets envious. On COVID, for example, we never have gotten the accurate word on what China's role was in propagating that virus. The CCP has used its dollar clout to shut up the WHO and gotten the tacit support of American technology/information giants to suppress views indicating that the virus came out of a lab in Wuhan. We now see oddities in China related to the virus, supposedly. The almost total and brutal lockdown of Shanghai is an extraordinary event which our passive press largely have ignored. It is not at all clear that the lockdown in that enormous city has anything to do with real concerns about COVID, and could well be the product of a power struggle over the upcoming 20th Congress of the CCP. I noted before in my old post referenced above that the leadership of the CCP, following the death of Mao much like the CPSU following the death of Stalin, had decided that no one man would come to hold the power that Mao had wielded. Xi Jing Pin, however, seems to have a different idea; it appears that he seeks to turn the 20th Congress into his coronation as leader for life. It also appears that CCP leaders from Shanghai have a different view from Xi's, and they are getting their city locked down in response. Hard to tell what's going on, so I might be totally wrong, but . . .. 

One of the more interesting "facts," well, I think it's a fact, is that despite China's fame as a manufacturer, the core of its economy, something around 70%, remains real estate and its financing. China's largest companies are in different facets of the real estate business. From what I have read, it seems that, despite the censorship and repression, perhaps hundreds-of-thousands--maybe more--of ordinary Chinese have grown tired of paying mortgages for houses that never get built; these citizens are simply refusing to pay. The construction companies and banks use the down payments and mortgage payments to buy or lease more land to sell never-to-build houses to other Chinese citizens. A massive Ponzi scheme on a scale never before attempted. This mortgage payment strike apparently has been sweeping the country forcing the CCP to begin to intervene. As I noted all those many years ago, Chinese banks remain a mystery. It would not be too crazy a thought that we could see a major meltdown in China's banks and real estate businesses. That would pose a massive threat to the entire CCP economic scheme of the past 25 or so years, and have serious consequences for Xi. 

China is much weaker than it appears from the outside. That, however, does not make it not a threat. We saw how Argentina's dictators tried to distract from Argentina's impending economic collapse by  provoking a war with Britain over the Falklands. China, better said, Xi might/might view an adventure over Taiwan as way to distract from troubles at home and solidify his grip on the CCP.

So, we will see how Xi reacts to the Pelosi visit and to the obvious weakness in Washington and the West.

34 comments:

  1. All good points, but you forgot something. There was a report out a month or two back about China seeing a massive drop in population over the next 50 years, something like 30-40%. Seems that One Child Policy of theirs had an unforeseen and very devastating effect on their demographics, a devastating shortage of women. Also mentioned in that report was their birth rate has taken a nosedive, so what marriageable women there are, are choosing not to have babies.

    So to me the question is: Can the West hold off giving this century to the Chinese long enough for them to self-implode?

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    Replies
    1. The birth rate plummet in China is about the worst in the planet outside of San Francisco.

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    2. Yes, you're right. I,however, mentioned that at some length in my original post from ten years ago; the situation has grown even worse since then.

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  2. I am curious why Pelosi went there in the first place. Was it to show how much in the pocket president select actually is? They did leak her itinerary to the press. When they could have just put on the "Surprise face" when it came out she went there, and state they had no advance knowledge of her travel plans. Or is it just simply Pelosi looking for graft money from the Taiwan corporations. I can't decide who is more corrupt.

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    Replies
    1. All good questions. I don't really know why she went except as it shows staff incompetence.

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  3. Since the Speaker of the House has no role in foreign relations, I want to know what she was doing, flying in a USAF VIP transport. Collecting bribes would be my guess.

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    Replies
    1. I presume as 3rd in succession, her travel is a cut above the traditional congressional scum. :)
      Possible she was trying to convince TSMC to move some production to the US so we have the possibility of not intervening when the CCP attacks. That's probably a hard sell.
      The US arms industry is quite dependent upon TSMC fabs in southern Taiwan.

      - reader #1482

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  4. I'm not convinced there was ANY reason for San FranNan to go to Taiwan.
    But once they released that she was thinking about it, and the Chinese had their undies-in-a-bundle reaction, then there was no alternative. Biden had to save some face, so off she went.
    What actually happens in Taiwan, though, remains irrelevant.

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  5. The "one-child policy" punhed a huge hole in Chinese de,pgraphics..

    Becaus of the anciemt tradition odf requiring s a SON and heir, a prodigious number of female foetuses were "put to the sword".

    Now several decades later and even with the official abandonment of tht policy, there is a problem.

    What does the government do with THIRTY million horny, educated , marriageable young men; the "little emperors".

    Turn them all gay and let them loose on the Bund in Shanghai?


    Not quiteMake them an offer they can't refuse? Like join the navy and se the world.? Join the international "aid' programmes and live for years in "interesting " places?

    All of the above?

    The parallel problem is that it appears that the "marriageable age" women are NOT impressed by the goods on offer locally, so they are getting their university degrees and themselves being exported around the globe; guess what happens next. "Anchor babies"; and, as I understand it, If you have Chinese "ancestors", you are, forever, "Chinese" and thus the property of the "emperor". And we all know that ALL must pay "tribute" to the Emperor / General secretary, etc.

    The tentacles run VERY deep. And those who are NOT ethnic Chinese are bought off or blackmailed as required, with the CLEAR understanding that "reversion" is DEATH.

    There is a "timetable operating and, NO, I do not have a ragged photocopy in my desk, BUT, has anyone noticed the converging "urgencies" afflicting the planet? This is not "happenstance", this is CONSPIRACY. The cake" has been "divided up", all that remains is who gets the crumbs, and who gets the chop. Always remember: It is the SECOND mouse that gets the cheese.

    This entire rock-show is "theatre", but with REAL blood. More "Noh" than "Kabuki".

    ReplyDelete
  6. I had not really considered the concept of covid lockdown as a form of political discipline or "re-education." When the CCP received applause from the far left in the west for there "demonstration of the value of totalitarianism" by clamping down on the first bout of covid (supposedly), Xi took it to heart and made it his "dictatorship signature" of sorts.
    The positive news is that the Christian church in the PRC is growing like a grease fire while the CCP is busy attempting to hose it down.

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  7. Afaict, evergrande property services had an IPO.. a state-owned bank invested in this IPO by putting up $2B worth of shares in itself for its 'investment' in the unit. The property services unit took those shares and deposited them in another financial vehicle in exchange for a loan for cash that was drawn out by the parent evergrande.... and subsequently... evaporated like everything evergrande'ish. Immediately after this, Evergrande attempted to sell its property services unit to some HK company, which I guess managed to perform a basic due diligence and say "wait.. where's the IPO's $2B?" "Oh.. it's safe... just don't worry about it." - Evergrande.

    There must have been an astounding number of people involved in this scam. It makes Anderson Consulting, Enron, and MCI-Worldcom look like kids on the playground playing rock-scissors-paper by comparison.

    - reader #1482

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  8. Pelosi is going to Tiawan to set up another Ukraine like money laundering scheme. Mark my words.

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  9. I am thinking it's a power play as China didn't want her to go so Sundowner didn't want her to go but she went anyway for no obvious reason.
    Money flowing to her is the best guess, this micro chip vote and scam likely.

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  10. Ubiquitous anger at the pelosi trip.. conservatives calling it showboating or fund raising, liberals calls it endangering China's communist utopia. I'm not sure what the game is but it appears to be pissing *everybody* off. Most likely, the Biden administration is faking its objections for the sake of brown nosing Xi while not trying to break out from under Pelosi's crushing thumb.

    - reader #1482

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  11. "The almost total and brutal lockdown of Shanghai is an extraordinary event which our passive press largely have ignored."

    The most obvious explanation is that this is a polite way for the CCP to wage economic war on the West. If we could dig into the details, we would probably find that some critical components of the US weapons needed to replace those being donated to/destroyed in the Ukraine come from Shanghai -- or, more accurately, used to come from Shanghai.

    China has its problems, but Our Enemy is inside the gate.

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  12. China has problems. But so do we. Wars are started for 3 reasons. Food, Land and Sex. All those males in China are coming of age where they are getting power.

    Poking the tiger is not something to take lightly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wars are also started for freedom.

      Delete
    2. There are a number of interesting folk from the past who may see things differently.

      Delete
  13. Seeing China's currrent military exercises around Taiwan post-Pelosi makes something very clear -- the Chinese Communist Party does not give a tinker's curse for the US, and they are not angry at Pelosi or the Biden* Administration; instead, they are really angry at the Taiwanese leaders for allowing the old lush to visit. That is why their ire is directed at Taiwan, not at the US.

    We know the world has changed (and not in a good way) when the CCP does not even think it is worth their while to get annoyed with the US. Apparently, we are beneath contempt!

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  14. wapo turns on biden over doha/zawahiri... but... I mean... c'mon... "No, we won't harbor terrorists." - Taliban. "See? They just told us all they're not going to harbor terrorists and that we can trust them." - Biden/Trump
    Seriously... nobody with a brain would believe that from the Taliban... yet Trump and Biden both were *shocked* when the Taliban didn't live up to the most remote word of Doha.

    - reader #1482

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  15. I think Australia has to be particularly aware and cautious about Xi's intentions. Apart from our extensive raw materials and open space, back in 1979, the Labor Premier of New South Wales, Neville Wran, invited Xi's father to visit Australia (Labor = Democrats). Xi's father was overwhelmed with what he saw: open spaces, productive farmlands, clear blue skies, and I'm sure he would have raved to his son about this wonderful Nirvana south of the equator.
    Over many years of his impressionable youth, Xi would have been indoctrinated by his father about this mystical land to the point where he now wants it. He wants it all and we are way under prepared to stop him.
    Australia will be one of his first targets. I'm glad I've kept my firearms.
    Copy and paste this link into your browser:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-24/huawei-xi-jinpings-father-xi-shongxun-shenzhen/100234828

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  16. Visiting relatives in Taiwan now.

    The scenario you describe is a very good reason why Xi will probably start another war. He no longer needs us; he believes taking Taiwan is a matter of historical justice and honor just as Hitler saw the Anschluss and taking the Sudetenland as Germany’s indisputable right.

    As for our side, liberal and SD dreams of a practical and pacific world will last even beyond the day when the PRC navy, courtesy of our tech transfers, takes Hawaii and Russia reincorporates Finland.

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    Replies
    1. The US should reinitiate nuclear testing before any other accepted nuclear power takes that initiative. Capitalize on its status as the only country to have deployed, even if only temporarily.

      Delete
    2. "US should reinitiate nuclear testing..."

      Shoulda Coulda Woulda!
      We'll see if we can at least
      accomplish a Free & Fair
      Mid term electiom cycle,
      from Sea to shining Sea~~~
      On Watch~~~
      Followed by:
      the "empecher"
      of treasonous/
      & criminal classes,
      now herding the USA
      into the Left's Latest,
      version/s of doomsday~~~
      OW~~~
      All Hands on Deck~~~
      "Let's Roll"

      Delete
  17. Spot on! My last Foreign Service posting, over 20 years ago, was to Guangzhou, to take charge of the newly established Adoption Unit (adoptions of Chinese orphans were then on the rise pretty dramatically and escalated further after I left China). Notwithstanding my lack of Chinese language training and my primary focus on Americans in China, I was still privy to cable traffic which discussed, among other things, the severe demographic imbalance of males to females within China, to the extent that some provinces were seeing "bride kidnappings" and forced marriages to Chinese men since women were in such short supply. This imbalance has only grown over the years, even with the recent change to allow more than 1 child. Millions of Chinese men will never be able to marry. What to do? Have them go into the military. Of course, they have the biggest land army in the world, etc etc. But by and large, not so well trained and the Chinese knockoffs of other country's weaponry are not well made. There are lots of other domestic issues -- lack of ability to feed their own population, periodic very severe flooding issues, the Ponzi real estate schemes resulting in citizens not being allowed to access their own bank funds, and so forth. China may need to embark on foreign adventures in an effort to distract from the problems at home. We shall see.

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    Replies
    1. Who can say what is really going on? When I was in China pre-Covid, I had expected to see roving bands of young males, same as we can see in many US cities -- because there is supposedly such a sex imbalance in China. Instead, sitting outside Starbucks, I saw lots of couples (often pushing strollers) and gaggles of attractive young ladies; no evidence at all of an excess of males. Should I believe government statistics or my lying eyes?

      The statistic which did catch my eye recently related to steel production -- China produces about 13 times as much steel as the US. 20 years ago, the US was a manufacturing powerhouse. Today, China is the manufacturing powerhouse and we are dependent on imports for many essentials.

      The Chinese foreign adventure we need to be concerned about is when China decides they have enough Bidenbucks and stops trading manufactured goods for yet more US IOUs. China can bring us to our knees without firing a shot -- and they know it! Sadly, the denizens of DC apparently do not know it.

      Delete
    2. There's a lot of speculation around those circumstances. While China produces an immense amount of steel, it is largely diverted into make-work construction projects (in the PRC and abroad) intended to keep the real estate/industrial ponzi-scheme alive there. There is likely an astronomical quantity of bad loans hidden in the books of chinese state-run organizations.
      If the CCP stops shipping product to the USA, the US$ will undergo severe inflation resulting in the CNY appreciating in the extreme. That appreciation will undermine chinese manufacturing and push production back to the US. The CCP will attempt to counter by trying to print renminbi faster than even the US fed can do so.
      In effect, this is already what's been going for a while now.
      A complete market disruption would damage both. The US would be scrounging for manufactured goods and the CCP would be panicking to deal with a financial implosion as mass layoffs strike the country.

      Neither the US nor the PRC would exit such a conflict unscathed, but when push comes to shove, affected plebes in the US like us can express our will in the polls (assuming results are respected). Residents of the PRC only get to choose between sucking it up and civil war.

      - reader #1482

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    3. "plebes in the US like us can express our will in the polls (assuming results are respected)"

      I appreciate your sense of humor! Remember how fast that oh-so-popular Wall got erected when we plebes gave the Institutional Republicans control of the House & Senate along with a genuine Republican President?

      There is no doubt that a US/China trade war would be damaging to both sides, just like a real war. But the side that produces Real Goods is going to suffer less than the side that produces only business-killing regulations & Bidenbucks.

      With proper leadership, the US could indeed rebuild its Real Economy, at the sacrifice of the currently dominant Financial Economy. However, that would not be a fast process. It took the DC denizens a quarter of a century to drive us into this mess -- it will take about another quarter of a century to dig our way back out.

      Delete
  18. Re Chinese Soldiers. I do believe the little princes ran into some Indian Soldiers in the Himalayas and got their asses handed to them. Same thing in a border skirmish with Vietnam. Maybe they were having a bad day. After Obama 2 our regular army is prolly not much better.

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  20. Helloo all yall Diplo Folks~~~
    U2~SE.2wee'ns gone'a bed & U 2/3$+
    Just back alive from a Family Reunion
    some'ers tween Deep River~n' a MI Bay
    Started my humble attempt to catch-up
    on my reading here, step 1, below tho it
    is a daunting preamble to process and
    be ready to protect & defend by sunup!

    That Is~~~
    Monday, April 2, 2012~~~China's Century?
    ..."I am talking about freedom, the real kind"...WLA

    Amen Sir!
    So please feel free to proceed a pace, whilst I, now, an
    old man, after our AMTRAC torture, w/a 5 hour delay
    hunched up in a corner with wife and luggage on the
    Train platform in a 5hr rain storm RR Station locked, no
    access to a toilet for the women, I took my chances and
    pissed on the building,..I've an aversion to peeing on the
    tracks, but my poor dear, the planner of the trip, so happy
    to get us outta the Airports and off the Jets...I vowed to
    never again fly... so she thought she could get me to go
    to her Family Reunion by hoppin on an Amtrac train...
    But before we even got our chance to board, we watched
    a young female w/ arms overloaded and neither of 2 of the
    attending trainsmen offered a hand to help her disembark!
    We heard her pain and saw her HARD fall from the train, slid
    past the stepstool, falling flat on her frontside onto the the station platform from our delayed train...

    In General tho, makes me think, that
    we've got a lot more training to do if
    we as a Nation truly want Freedom
    and the personal responsabilities
    that Freedom requires~~~
    Older & hopefully, wiser~~~
    On Watch~~~

    "Let's Roll"

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  21. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  22. Sarah M. I served in Guangzhou, too, and recall “baby days”.

    I do, however, also recall that there were reports from the countryside that health officials who got a bit over-zealous enforcing the one-child policy sometimes “disappeared” while on their rounds. The Uyghur migrant colony that then existed behind the train station was then a no go zone for the police ( they were nice enough to me when I came to buy bread, raisins, or melons.

    The most disturbing thing, though, was one of the little spooks the foreign ministry sent as help. She was shocked that an American of German descent would have absolutely no warm spot for Hitler, thought the Jews should’ve considered their deaths a small sacrifice for “national unity”, and then was utterly jaw-drop horrified when I explained that roughly one in every three US soldiers who served in Europe, including Eisenhower himself, was of German descent. At that point, part of me wanted to tell her that if China wasn’t careful, it would find itself under a US military occupation headed by a general named Huang or Zhao—but diplomatically held my tongue. Still, our being Kennedy’s “nation of immigrants” did not register; and I fear I left the impression that we are a nation of race traitors. In those days, we were also impressed by the Gao Gan who were sending their money abroad—especially to the USA.

    ReplyDelete
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