The news coming out of Russia and Ukraine gets more and more garbled. I have no idea, as stated many times before, what is or is not true. The information, in general, seems to come from partisans of both sides and has an agenda.
The latest from the conflict seems to indicate that Yevgeny Prigozhin and his brutal Wagner Group mercenary army of convicts and former Soviet/Russian military have turned on their Moscow masters.
Following days and days of statements from Prigozhin blasting the Minister of Defense and other senior officials, including lately his former pal President Putin, for incompetence in their handling of the "Special Operation" in Ukraine, the Wagnerians have left, apparently, some key positions in Ukraine and marched into Russia. Prigozhin, as you know, is known to exaggerate and, well, lie like a rug. So take whatever he says with a fistful of salt.
There are garbled accounts of fighting between Wagner and Russian military units. Not clear how much fighting and where exactly Prigozhin's troops are heading. To add to the mess, a tired looking Putin gave a rambling speech apparently accusing Yevgeny Prigozhin of trying to pull a coup and committing treason. Some sort of military checkpoints reportedly have been set up on the outskirts of Moscow, although, as far I can tell, the Wagnerians have not brought their opera to Moscow, as of yet.
Is this the beginning of the end of Russia's misadventure in Ukraine, or something else? Who has the nukes, for example?
Moscow has used the Wagner Group to conduct operations without the official stamp of the Russian government, providing a flimsy and rather easily seen-through "plausible" deniability. They have been reported in places such as Africa and, of course, in Syria. They are famous for their brutality.
As you will remember, in Syria, in February 2018, the Wagner Group clashed with US forces; SecDef Mattis gave his famous order, "Annihilate them." Our forces apparently did that, with perhaps 200 (or more) Wagner mercenaries slaughtered by US artillery, drones, and aircraft. Supposedly, Prigozhin felt betrayed by Moscow's non-response to the beating his troops took.
I would think, but I know little, that Moscow could beat Wagner. Russia's military, however, has a demonstrated capability for incompetence that is quite staggering.
Supposedly.
Keep that word in mind when reading anything about Russia, Ukraine, and Wagner.
And, remember, there are no good guys in this horrid movie.
Anybody with a clearer view of what's happening, please jump in.
I hear that, would love to have more accurate information. This seems just crazy. Makes me wonder if the rumors were true of Prigozhin reaching a 'separate peace' with Kiev back during the Bakhmut assault.
ReplyDeleteI hope every appointee in the nuclear chain of command in russia has grandchildren.
- reader #1482
The only other goal I could see with this would be a putsch-against-Hugo-Chavez style operation where Chavez knew about a coup and let it organize, execute, and appear to succeed in order to identify a more complete list of his enemies for later retribution, all the while having the top hand and playing his enemies like puppets.
DeleteIs Putin looking to see who joins Prigozhin before having his nkvd agents close to Prigozhin (theorized) take him down?
(btw, would love to hear your thoughts/opinions about that Chavez-moment some day Mr. Mad.. were you dealing with OAS stuff at that time?)
- reader #1482
Ukraine also apparently took out a critical bridge from Crimea to the rest of eastern Ukraine. Between that and Prigozhin disrupting Rostov, Russian military units throughout the donbas region likely are extremely constrained on logistics/supply for now. Putin doesn't have a lot of time to sit on this.
Delete- reader #1482
Lots of claims flying that Putin has exited Moscow. I guess in situations like this, such crap is always flung. I'm guessing Putin has plenty of agents ready to assassinate whatever subordinates join Prigozhin.
Delete- reader #1482
I'll bet Putin directly ordered Wagner to staunch breeches in the Russian lines resulting from some entrepreneurial ukrainian military adventures. Prigozhin then refused, and Putin ordered the MoD to take some warning shots, which exacerbated the situation.
DeleteBeware the Russian 1st-world intelligence apparatus though. I wouldn't be surprised if Prigozhin gets a bullet in the back of his head from someone very close to him who ends up actually being closer (or more exposed) to Putin. KGB/FSB/NKVD all seem very indistinguishable from what's written about the russian mafias.
- reader #1482
Apparently none of these fellows can get along with each other. I saw Vicegrad 24 videos of Wagnerites taken by civilians just standing around with their phones. Lots of healthy looking young men and women watching the goings on. For now "Putin's Chef" has turned on him. Perhaps "Putin's Brain" Alexander Dugin will follow. It could get interesting..
ReplyDeleteAnother question in all of this, what about the Chinese? Will they take advantage of the chaos to expand into Russia's eastern area (lots of space & resources), knowing Russia has few (if any) outside allies to call on for help? Would Siberia be easier to grab than Taiwan (and with far less world-wide disapproval)?
ReplyDeleteInteresting times...
Much easier and cheaper.
Delete"IT..."
DeleteYes, especially so roy,
since the reveal,
~"Putin's Chef"~
spoiled the broth &
now stirring the stew
brew w/ his sidearm~~~
On Watch~~~
Meanwhile BiTeMe's
handler, Obomba is
lamenting the loss at
sea of a boatload 750
Italy bound Libyan migrants...
versus the "obscene inequality"
of news coverage, viz the
loss of all 5hands aboard
the sunken Father's Day
Submarine, 2 miles below~~~
"Let's Roll"
Well that ended quickly. I'm guessing Putin always had an ace up the sleeve but was loathe to use it. He may have more of those, but he won't need them. If a guy with some 10-50k soldiers at his disposal can't unseat Putin, nobody can.
ReplyDeleteWas nice to hear Prigozhin finally acknowledge certain truths of this war. I wonder what Putin has over him.
- reader #1482