Thursday, August 15, 2013
Wandering in the Desert
The situation in Egypt is serious. We face the possibility of a disaster on the scale of the Iran-Shah meltdown. Our never easy but, nevertheless, durable association with Egypt over the past forty years has proven key to our policy in the Middle East and elsewhere, e.g., Egypt was a major ally in our effort to push the USSR out of Afghanistan and to control the jihadi crazies in North Africa.
The equanimity with which our current embarrassment of a President watches the possible disintegration of forty-years of work is stunning. He can barely be bothered to delay his tee time to issue some boilerplate blather about ending the state of emergency and beginning a "process of reconciliation." OK, back to the vacation.
The current Egyptian government, yes, yes, unpleasant military types who probably never have been to Harvard, is in a battle for its life against the extremely unpleasant and murderous Muslim Brotherhood (MB).
The MB is out for blood, lots of it.
The eighty-five year old MB wants to kill Christians, Jews, and gays; it wants women put back into the 7th century; it wants to destroy Israel; it wants to destroy America and the West; it seeks to establish an Islamic Caliphate that runs from Spain to Indonesia, and eventually takes over the world. The MB are not modest, moderate people who believe in the democratic game of compromise and tolerance for dissent.
At a minimum, we should expect respectful silence from our idiotic President, and his equally idiotic Secretary of State, who is still running around yammering about Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem and pressuring Israel to release jihadi murderers. If these two "leaders" of the West cannot bring themselves to support the defeat of the MB, they should at least shut up.
WLA
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If MB and their AQ allies win this one, ALL bets are off. As I said before, this one is a long way from over and it's going to get bad. I think really bad.
ReplyDeleteUnlike Israel, the Egyptian army is not known for listening to the UN (sensible guys that they are). So if the mb want a fight they will get one, perhaps to the finish.
DeleteThey are also not well known for restraint against AQ, this could be the purge that is needed in Sinai.
I do fear this could escalate to use of the shoulder-to-air missiles that the African king kindly gifted AQ. When the paleswinians or mb start losing (and they will) they may resort to desperate measures.
Iran, Russia and Syria must be laughing like crazy, the king and his sycophants have lost their pants and the stains on their panties are evident.
I am not as confidant of the Egyptian army as some. I am also very worried about MB and AQ penetration of the Egyptian army. Too many countries and too many organizations have made public declarations of their interests being "vital" in Egypt for this to be over quickly or cleanly.
DeleteCascadian?
DeleteI'd left a comment here "ostensibly" addressed some weeks prior where you'd questioned my motive/intent as to your Welcome.
Sorry - that was a 'steg' - my Bro-in-law needs and I'll get back.
Arkie
James, we are talking about the Middle East, literally anything could happen, and likely will happen. The half-assed attempts of USA, UK and France to implement democracy in an area unready for it has unleashed all the crazies, not only in Egypt but also Syria, Lebanon, Libya and Tunisia-quite the achievement even for a bunch of incompetents, other opportunists will attempt to exploit the instability.
DeleteI have watched the Egyptian army responses to Israel in Sinai and can only say they are sensible and unafraid to exert their power when deemed necessary, they also don't go picking fights they know they cannot win.
You are right this will not be "over" quickly, Middle East issues are never over until the day somebody nukes a portion of it, and I don't exclude that possibility.
Arkie, your comment did not offend me, therefore an apology is redundant. I was merely perplexed by the message.
DeleteGetting beyond that, thank you for the welcome.
The military has the most guns - certainly more F -15,16s - they'll win in the end being as Egypt's situated as it is.
DeleteThe "problem" as Diplomad hints is our oh, 'squishiness' I suppose - early July our [my use of "our" hereafter ya'll understand is qualified] reaction was ... well, to put it where it belonged was Amb Patterson's. [She of the "Offering the Original on Benghazi - PBU Her."]
Arab Spring happens & as a lot & sundry folks had been supporting "Democracy in the ME" - well, as the Facebook was involved it had to be, as our Martha would've put it, "A Good Thing!" ... nevermind the ENTIRE history since about WWI.
& what does "our" MisAdmin do? ... Fully Support of course.
Intermission.
Libya.
Intermission.
Nobody apparently heard The Music - so ... ... Obama's got Kerry doing old-fashioned beauty pageant paeans of Peace in the Middle East (it was NOT a coup) ---- then "asks" McCain & Graham to go over and confab.
McCain declares, It was a coup!
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Problematic messaging as even the most amateurish ME observer might observe.
So. What to do?
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It appears the WH & Associates are winging it - no appreciation of (or for) what our career FS people have managed - again, nevermind what US people have paid the price for - worse that - the benefit was aimed at somebody else. FOR somebody else.
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Apologies but I'm kinda mad - but my mad doesn't come close to my "scared."
What I'd "like to see" happen is, Obama & Team (with Henry Kissinger presiding) get locked-downed into some prison [without a golf course] ... figure out something approaching what the Reality is, and go from there.
Maybe something like COHERENT could figure into the equation?
Mind. I'm from Arkansas & "Dumb" is in our breastmilk.
Arkie
One of the big sources of friction between the MB and other salafist/jihadist groups, such as al Qaeda, has been the Brotherhood's preference to be patient and gradually grow its influence in society, until it can capture the state, whereas al Qaeda-types want jihad now. I think the MB thought it had succeeded in Egypt when it won the elections, but their incompetence in governing proved their undoing.
ReplyDeleteWith the "patience faction" disgraced, the direct-action can claim they were right all along and, with more than half of Egyptian society apparently agreeing with them, they can do something about it. This is a formula for a long, bloody civil war.
Good thing we have Team Smart Power in charge.
Excellent point and I wish I had made it.
DeleteWow, that is a great point. It may also be the saving failure on the part of the MB.
DeleteIf instead of electing themselves tyrants and imposing their will, they had instead slowly and steadily eroded democratic processes, they probably would've had a much better chance at winning the long term goal.
In some ways it's great to see the true conflict revealing itself.
reader #1482
I agree.
ReplyDeleteAnd James, awhile back we "may have" had a slight disagreement over the dangers the Norkies posed - but this one scares me. Especially so as Diplomad points (shouts?) "our guys" don't seem to have a clue as to when to sit the ____ down and shut the ____ up.
Cairo is bad enough but coupled with Sinai, this is particularly worrisome.
Arkie
Another albatross around the neck of Hillary.
ReplyDeleteAny bets on the MSM claiming the Arab Spring was a success until John Kerry became SecState (throwing him under the bus in an effort to keep hillary viable).
Hillary left with few if any successes, but she did leave behind that "Clinton trademark"--Complications. Big ones. Started with that damn big "reset button" with the Putins.
DeleteDemocrat administration are good at leaving behind foreign policy complications: Cold War, Vietnam War, Castro (bay of Pigs disaster), Grenada, Iran, Nicaragua, Afghanistan, and now Egypt and a deteriorating Libya, just to mention a few.
DeleteThey are relentlessly consistent.
DeleteDiplomad,
ReplyDeleteWe are really going to count on your expert insight on the matter of Egypt and other Middle Eastern matters. I am fully aware that the misadministration and its lapdog media are going to attempt to bury the truth and so we are going to need a source of enlightenment.
As "one of your 7 regular readers", I really appreciate your posts! I don't comment often, but I read all of your posts.
sb
It's been 8 for a couple of years...
DeleteAnother thought is that the less stable things get in that region, the more likely it is that Israel will act in its own interests, nevermind the latest blather coming from JFK or the Obamunists.
ReplyDeleteThat could REALLY take things to a level not seen since the 60s or 70s (if ever).
Just discovered this website after finding the link on Keith Koffler's blog. Very interesting.
ReplyDeleteThanks, and welcome.
DeleteTragic as it is, secular despots often can be allies against the 'clear and present danger' of radical islam. 'TimeToGetSmart'
ReplyDeleteAs during the Cold War, we will have to get in bed with some unsavory characters. The ME has been no different and will be no different. We just have to be willing to leave the lights off and push the dirty devil out the back window when his "use by"date expires. Messy biz.
DeleteI have read Saiyyid Qutb in translation, and can't see how anyone who takes him seriously as a mentor won't hate the USA for what it is as much as (or more than) what it has done. An MB- or Salafist-dominated Egypt or Syria will not be an ally of the USA. Period.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I won't rest easily about the USA until I see a normal transition away from the O's administration in 2017. The O's reaction to coups d'etat overseas is ominous for our own country, because it reveals a complete lack of appreciation for how a working democracy requires checks and balances, and is not simply a matter of putting one man in power on the plaudits of the masses. In Honduras, when Zelaya tried to extend his government beyond constitutional terms, the army moved at the command of their Congress and Supreme Court, not to put some junta of generals in power. In Egypt, again it was Morsi trying to make himself an MB Nasser coupled with his economic ineptitude that got him into trouble. Sure, the Honduran case at least shows an extreme measure taken to preserve checks and balances; but at least it was an attempt to preserve constitutional government.
The O seems to want to model himself on Third World strongmen. It is a blessing in disguise for the USA at this time that he prefers the golf links to governing. Our Constitutional liberties would be gone by now if it were the other way.
"At a minimum, we should expect respectful silence from our idiotic President, and his equally idiotic Secretary of State"
ReplyDeleteAnd don't forget the equally idiotic Juan McInsane and his mini-me Lindseed Gramnesty, who went to Eqypt and made the Egyptians think they were a delegation direct from the Muslim Nazihood.
Very good point and my bad for not mentioning that. In a previous piece I wrote on Syria I mentioned the idiocy being advocated by McCain.
DeleteJust what the h-e double broomsticks up their arse are Tweedledee and Tweedledumber doing in the ME anyhow?
DeleteHow is this in their 'portfolio' as they say, and to what end would they be there, other than to ruin what little reputation they and the GOP in the Senate have left?
Obama and his minions are keeping their mouths shut and hoping the American public forgets that Obama's foreign "policy" lead to the current disaster in Egypt.
ReplyDeleteFunny how the media isn't talking about Obama and Co. backing the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. It's almost like it's a conspiracy of silence.
And, of course, the GOP idiot twins think it's a good idea to inject themselves into something that I'm sure most Egyptians, with very good reason, blame the US for.
Isn't there anyone smart enough to tell Senators or, at least, find a way to prevent the Senators from getting involved in such stupidity?
-Blake
Tweedledum and Tweedledee.
DeleteTweedledumb and Tweedledumber
DeleteI have a theory that democratic presidents are only elected with some sort of messed up, obsessive compulsive foreign policy cleanliness meter.
ReplyDeleteSeems to result in guys like Obama and Carter looking at the various sides in a conflict, deciding that none of them are "really the good guys", and then waffling back and forth with regards to providing a level of support that would be luke warm at best. (Did Clinton do this?)
It's almost like they want foreign policy decisions to be clear and easy, when they are necessarily anything but. Rather than a painstaking analysis and risky decision based upon differential merits, they seem to just give up and disengage.
In most of these cases, I suspect it's probably more of a threat to US interests to be waffling or non-committal, than it is to wind up backing the 'wrong' horse in the race.
Blake - Great observations about the situation in Egypt.
ReplyDeleteThe American public should be constantly reminded that Obama's foreign "policy" led to the current disaster in Egypt.
People need to be told of the Muslim Brotherhood's anti-West, anti-Christian, jihadist ideology. Then they need to be asked why the Obozo administration was backing the Muslim Brotherhood over the democratic forces in Egypt.
If enough people mention the truth, in enough venues, it will help overcome the media blackout that won't talk about Obama's policies wrt Egypt.
- tlk428
Thank you.
DeleteI can't wait for Obama, Graham, McCain and Christie to join hands and start singing "Kumbaya" after speechifying about the divisions in the body politic and how we all need to "reach across the aisle" and "ignore the mistakes of the past" so we can "build a better tomorrow by working together."
Traitorous morons, the lot of them.
-Blake
and who, I wonder, will take in those Copts that manage to flee their persecution? not forgetting the Assyrians too? anyone in the Middle East? US? EU?
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't allow any immigrant into the USA from the Middle East unless he could pray at least the whole Apostles' Creed from memory.
DeleteThere is one other wild-card in the mix that neither side is really equipped to deal with: Egypt, the former bread basket of the Roman Empire, cannot feed itself.
ReplyDeleteNor can it afford to import what it needs (including refined petroleum products) without handouts from its friend in the House of Saud.
The handouts could be interrupted if the price of oil drops. This is a possibility (happened in 2008) because the price is not being driven by actual usage of oil products. End-user consumption is down due to the world wide economic slowdown. The price is being driven by the fact that oil is being bought as a hedge against depreciating currency. The Saudis (and Russia) need $90+ oil per barrel to keep their economies creaking along. If the price goes South so does Egypt's lifeline.
What happens when the population drops by half due to starvation? The Egyptians are already suffering from widespread malnutrition.