In a ghastly modern-day simulacrum of the disastrous French revolution, in Egypt we might see the removal of the military emperor/pharaoh, followed by violence, then a mad murderous fundamentalist regime, and, now, with luck, end with a return to the rule of a military emperor/pharaoh.Kinda looks like that's how it turned out.
Got to hand it to the French and their July 14 Revolution. They certainly set the pattern for revolutions all over the world, to wit, long established regime overthrown, followed by chaos and murder, establishment of an even more murderous fundamentalist regime, and ending with the re-establishment of a version of the original regime.
Our poor July 4 Revolution, on the other hand, rarely (never?) gets copied. We rarely (never?) see an armed revolt demanding freedom and independence that then delivers on both. Guess we are just not in touch with the Big Wide Wonderful World out there.
Just so you know, I told erstwhile colleagues at State my prediction about a year ago. They brushed aside the Diplomad's warnings as the rantings of a "conservative." I guarantee you (next prediction) that nobody's career at State will be harmed by the hash made of Egypt, or of Libya, or of Syria. All involved will get awards, promotions, and great onward assignments. And you can take that to the bank . . . they certainly will.
WLA
Of course, Egypt still has the problem that it is out of money and cannot feed itself. How would you rate the prospects of some trumped up causus belli (Terrorists!) followed by Egypt's seizure of the oil fields of eastern Libya?
ReplyDeleteIt would be a shame for Egypt to let a crisis go to waste. And with Soetero occupied with the Global War on CO2 and the EUros now broke as well as feckless, who would stop Egypt?
Unless the Saudis bail them out. "All involved will get awards, promotions, and great onward assignments", never fails does it?
DeleteIn my humble opinion, James has the "easier" scenario to
DeleteHow would you rate the prospects of some trumped up casus belli (Terrorists!) followed by Egypt's seizure of the oil fields of eastern Libya?
Cyrenaica is and has been a snakepit of (more or less) rabid Salafist & MB leaning elements - Egypt's military has just, ahem, 'diselected' Egypt's elected MB leader - what possible plus would Egypt's military see in annexing the home region of Libya's LIFG?
(Unless maybe ... Egypt's military has the equivalent of our Senator Rubio et al, advising it's Command Council Egypt needs more "immigrants" to improve it's chances when the election comes up - we should know more when we see Senator McCain's reaction to what has occurred in Cairo.)
My guess would be, Egypt's military might, just might move a brigade of engineers to that godforsaken border and do what the majority of our "non-DC" citizens would if given half a chance, build a fence!
Building a fence would increase the likelihood the Saudis would foot the bill for a Egyptian Stimulus Plan.
Arkie
Meant to add...
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-02/head-of-libya-s-cyrenaica-declares-semi-autonomous-rule.html
Ark
Could very well be Arkie. Their main problem is economic and changing regimes will not sprinkle fairy dust all over and make it better. True the new guys will probably be better than the MB, but that's not hard. They'll face the same unrest the MB has fairly quickly. For military adventures the Egyptians may turn south to Ethiopia to stop the Nile dam project. But all this may be redundant since Mons. Kerry is restarting the peace process which will solve all this quite quickly. Yes we can!
DeleteThey'll face the same unrest the MB has fairly quickly.
DeleteAgreed. Without reservation.
With one smallish caveat - Egypt's military seems to enjoy what I'd call "Intimidators" in the form of Apaches and M1A1s. Now in the finest traditions of their co-brethren to the north (Palestinian youth) I can see the possibility of some group of either MB nitwits or other malcontents pulling the region's equivalent of a Tiananmen Square [throwing a rock at an Abrams] to effect - but hurling rocks at Apaches I think, wouldn't go so well.
Too I note, the Muslim Brotherhood's supreme guide, Mohamed Badie, was arrested in the northern city of Marsa Matrouh, near the Libyan border - that'll likely be seen as something of a hindrance to enthusiasm for open disagreements.
But I guess we'll see. Of course your reminding me that, Yes we can! goes a long way to cheering me up.
Arkie
Always glad to be of assistance.
DeleteObama better act fast if he is going to save his brother-from-another-mother and fellow Pharaoh, Morsi.
ReplyDelete"All involved will get awards, promotions, and great onward assignments."
ReplyDeleteWell, you always promote people to the highest level of their incompetence (I guess Obama will become King of the World on that principle).
Happy 4th of July from bigoted, hate-filled, immoral Uncle Kepha (or so Mr. Justice Kennedy describes me).
ReplyDeleteThe other day, I got a facebook message asking if I thought real democracy would follow Egypt's coup. I said no. The kind of revolution we had in the USA stood on the backs of a people schooled in Calvinism, which itself had developed a political doctrine that saw all authority in church, home, and state as stewardship rather than mastery; feared the effects of too much power concentrated in the hands of sinners (all of us except Jesus Christ); and had been groping around for ways to mitigate the political effects of the Fall of Adam for two centuries over in Europe.
Islam, which believes that the effects of Adam's Fall were minimal (hence its penchant for conspiracy theories rather than asking "Where did we go wrong?"), thinks that a rightly-guided Caliph will solve everything, and has no conception of God using fallible men for great things, is going to be poor soil for anything like our system of government. Come to think of it, now that we're losing the faith of the generations governed by our political founders, we're coming to be pretty poor soil for Constitutional government, too.
" we're coming to be pretty poor soil for Constitutional government, too." Maybe not just yet Kepha, I'm still optimistic or maybe just balmy, but I still have a lot of hope.
Delete"For military adventures the Egyptians may turn south to Ethiopia to stop the Nile dam project."
DeleteCould be -- although going west to the cash cow of Cyrenacia would make more economic sense.
Since the Egyptians outnumber the eastern Libyans by about 30:1 and since they are not constrained by EUtopian Rules of Engagement and since no-one is going to intervene, the choice of seizing part of the artifical construct of Libya would clearly be open for Egypt if Saudi does not come up with the necessary $20 Billion annual subvention.
Come to think of it, cutting Rump Libya down to size (& denying them resources diverted to feeding Egyptians) might suit the Saudis quite nicely -- as well as saving Saudi gold for other purposes.
It is staggering to look at a map and see that Arc of Discontent running along the south side of the Mediterranean, across northern Arabia, and along the north side of the Persian Gulf. From Algeria to Pakistan -- it is a mess. Most of the conflicts in that Arc have been largely contained within state boundaries up till now. Perhaps we should not count on things continuing that way?
Kinuachdrach - were the MB running things still, I'd be inclined to agree. A "political party" not in control of the military must have "needs to distract."
DeleteBut Sir, this time I'm going firm in agreement with Diplomad's analysis - admitting first and foremost that until fairly recently my assignments were focused on the Norkies ... and, no credit to myself accruing seem to've been for the better part, correct.
(If it was the same 'James & others' proffering on FormerSpook that is.)
Kinuachdrach - the more I consider what you've typed, the more I consider what you've typed BS. The strategic way to go is to "consolidate" - inferentially, the "conservative way" - not that that's how we generally understand it thematically in the US - but that'd be the way "in context regionally."
Frankly Kinuachdrach, I think you're trying to "pull the fleece" as it were - but I'm thinking too, our host has it well in hand.
How's Egypt's tourism going Kinuachdrach?
Arkie
Oh dear I hate waking up (of course preferring to wake up) following some roiling around in what I thought was gonna be restful sleep - then again - some unknowns of my used to be past maybe were, maybe not were, responsible for all that BOOMING!!! with nary a cloud in the sky ........ but I had to come back to Kinuachdrach's mapping of the Mediterranean ...
ReplyDelete"It is staggering to look at a map and see that Arc of Discontent running along the south side of the Mediterranean, across northern Arabia, and along the north side of the Persian Gulf. From Algeria to Pakistan -- it is a mess. "
I guess I had to wake up Kinuachdrach in order to ask - where in the heck did you take lessons in Geography?
The southern coast of the Med = "Northern Arabia"?
And "along the north side ... from Algeria to Pakistan" is "a mess"?
I'm supposing Kinuachdrach, according to your cartographer, Labrador and the Salton, would be in the "Arabian Sea"?
The Salton being in Kalifornia I'm reckoning (long as you'll be guaranteeing earthquake premiums) I reckon Kalifornia won't fuss much - however Kinuachdrach, you and your buddies try to place Labrador in the Med ... well, I was thinking the Royal Navy but that ... However Kinuachdrach, experienced as ya'll are - you've never taken on the Inuit!
Arkie
Arkie --
DeleteTell us your misunderstanding of clear English & plain geography is a deliberate attempt at humor. Please! Or tell us you are a typical employee of Foggy Bottom. Either way, the rest of us will understand.
Good day, Sir.